I can confidently say I'm playing better poker than I ever have at every game I choose to play. At the same time, I've never been more unsuccessful. I've had a run of bad beats that would shake the emotions of Paradise Poker's 40/80 bots. This game has taken a toll on me over the past month. After a couple very nice wins in January and lots of successful, yet not huge results, things have turned quite sour. I'm stressed out from all the bad beats even though I shouldn't be. Bad beats are just a sign you are playing better. When I continue to get deep in tournaments or lose enormous pots when I'm way ahead, it takes an emotional toll. Then if I go play a cash game or sit n go or heads up tournament or live tournament the same thing happens.
I went to the Wynn tonight and looked down at AJ with about 3500 chips left with 100/200 blinds. After raising to 600 and having the big blind call, flop came down AJ7 rainbow. I bet 700 and was check raised all in and instacalled. J7 was shown by the other player and the 7 on the turn was about the straw that broke the camel's back.
How can I complain so much I know, but seriously, it's getting a little out of hand. I've read articles about how great tournament players can go long periods in the red and never have that big win. I mean I don't know how someone can handle that and maybe that's why being a professional poker player is a huge risk.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Have No Fear
Have no fear people, I'm ok and mentally stable. I appreciate all the concern from people, but that blog was a frustrated, candid vent. Any random poker player can tell you lies about how great they do all the time, but it's impossible to always win in a game that has so much chance involved. Looking over the long term is how you must view your success. Some days are extremely tough, but others are a lot of fun, challenging, strategic, and refreshing. When I wake up in the morning though, I always have the desire to try another tournament. Today though, I didn't play until late into the night when I decided to play only one solid tournament on Pokerstars. I cashed in the tournament, so I can't complain although I just lost a big race in the money for a lot of chips. I'm playing the first event of the Wynn Classic tomorrow if I can get the computer guy to fix my computer quickly.
I've watched the show In Treatment on HBO and all the episodes over the past week. I've really enjoyed this show. If you haven't watched it, I would recommend it for a few reasons. First, I think it's very believable and realistic. Secondly, it's intense, but not in the usual manner of today's shows. It's extremely intimate conversation about 4 different patients on each day of the week, then the fifth day is the shrink seeing a shrink. They have been playing every day and are on HBO On Demand.
So far my favorites are in this order (patients)
1. Laura
2. Sophie
3. Alex
4. Jake and Amy
5. Paul and Gina
Derek Anderson's deadline to sign before free agency is quickly approaching. From all I've heard, there has been very little progress. The Browns are facing 3 year and 6 year deals and I think we all know that a 6 year deal is a drastic mistake. Having two quarterbacks on the payroll for starting QB money is not the way to build a franchise, especially one that is lacking defensively. That leaves the option of a 3 year deal which to me is just too long to sit Brady Quinn out. I'm really hoping another team makes a big offer at Anderson. I don't think he is worth what he is asking. The offensive line has made him and failing to beat one of the worst secondaries in the league in Cincinnati when it counted most is still lingering. Father/Son combinations can't play catch as well as DA did with the Cincinnati secondary. Also, I believe Quinn will be a very good NFL QB when it is all said and done. He is smart, a hard worker, and there is nothing this team needs.
Is everybody getting ready for March Madness? I don't know how a sport could be so terribly boring 4 months, and then all of a sudden take over the world of every sports fan. All I know is that I'm looking forward to it.
Jay, who finally figured out how to post questions, asked "How will Ralph Nader affect the overall Presidential race?"
I really just don't like this guy. I probably agree with some of his opinions, but if he is promoting an agenda that's Green, he knows he's hurting the Democratic party. I can't remember where I heard this quote, but someone said, if it weren't for Ralph Nader, we would have had the most green President in the history of the USA (Al Gore). I don't see his entry into the race as a positive development for Democrats. Since I believe this race will be very close, it basically means a Democrat will have to gain 1-2% more of a margin to win. I'm interested to see how the Democrats fair in Southern states this election. Howard Dean made it very clear that he believes taking the Democratic message to places where it hasn't been heard is a goal of his as DNC Chair. When I heard him speak at Miami University, he was thrilled to take the battle down South.
The Cavs looked decent tonight, but failed to win after a miraculous shot by Michael Redd. They are sloppy and I expected this for 10 games or so. So far we are 1-1 and I would think it's positive if we go 5-5 here. I don't think the playoffs and the seeds really matter at all. We won't get 1 or 2 and we're going to have to play both Boston and Detroit. The rest of the season is more about Mike Brown finding the rotation, guys playing with each other, and Lebron figuring things out.
I've watched the show In Treatment on HBO and all the episodes over the past week. I've really enjoyed this show. If you haven't watched it, I would recommend it for a few reasons. First, I think it's very believable and realistic. Secondly, it's intense, but not in the usual manner of today's shows. It's extremely intimate conversation about 4 different patients on each day of the week, then the fifth day is the shrink seeing a shrink. They have been playing every day and are on HBO On Demand.
So far my favorites are in this order (patients)
1. Laura
2. Sophie
3. Alex
4. Jake and Amy
5. Paul and Gina
Derek Anderson's deadline to sign before free agency is quickly approaching. From all I've heard, there has been very little progress. The Browns are facing 3 year and 6 year deals and I think we all know that a 6 year deal is a drastic mistake. Having two quarterbacks on the payroll for starting QB money is not the way to build a franchise, especially one that is lacking defensively. That leaves the option of a 3 year deal which to me is just too long to sit Brady Quinn out. I'm really hoping another team makes a big offer at Anderson. I don't think he is worth what he is asking. The offensive line has made him and failing to beat one of the worst secondaries in the league in Cincinnati when it counted most is still lingering. Father/Son combinations can't play catch as well as DA did with the Cincinnati secondary. Also, I believe Quinn will be a very good NFL QB when it is all said and done. He is smart, a hard worker, and there is nothing this team needs.
Is everybody getting ready for March Madness? I don't know how a sport could be so terribly boring 4 months, and then all of a sudden take over the world of every sports fan. All I know is that I'm looking forward to it.
Jay, who finally figured out how to post questions, asked "How will Ralph Nader affect the overall Presidential race?"
I really just don't like this guy. I probably agree with some of his opinions, but if he is promoting an agenda that's Green, he knows he's hurting the Democratic party. I can't remember where I heard this quote, but someone said, if it weren't for Ralph Nader, we would have had the most green President in the history of the USA (Al Gore). I don't see his entry into the race as a positive development for Democrats. Since I believe this race will be very close, it basically means a Democrat will have to gain 1-2% more of a margin to win. I'm interested to see how the Democrats fair in Southern states this election. Howard Dean made it very clear that he believes taking the Democratic message to places where it hasn't been heard is a goal of his as DNC Chair. When I heard him speak at Miami University, he was thrilled to take the battle down South.
The Cavs looked decent tonight, but failed to win after a miraculous shot by Michael Redd. They are sloppy and I expected this for 10 games or so. So far we are 1-1 and I would think it's positive if we go 5-5 here. I don't think the playoffs and the seeds really matter at all. We won't get 1 or 2 and we're going to have to play both Boston and Detroit. The rest of the season is more about Mike Brown finding the rotation, guys playing with each other, and Lebron figuring things out.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Poker Depression
Not much has gone right lately in the game of poker for me. I've had an absolutely awful February and really have been struggling with how I feel about my game and myself. When I feel like I have everything under control and know I'm playing well, I'll have a day or a few days where I just do unbelievable things. The game of poker is one of the most frustrating things anyone could ever do. The highs and lows are unbelievable. Just one month ago I was on the verge of an excellent start to the year with a great month and a couple nice tournament wins. I have now had very little success and when I've been in great positions late in tournaments, nothing has gone right. The game is so filled with luck that you just can't control anything. The stability of income is just not there when you are a professional and it's tough to deal with on an everyday basis. If you are a tournament player for the majority of the time, you don't really make good money unless you get in the top 3 of a normal tournament or go deep in a big buy in tournament. I haven't had success on a Sunday since probably September. I don't know what's wrong with my game. Emotionally, it's tough and I try not to let it affect me, and for the most part, I don't let it affect my interactions, but it's an ever lingering thing. By doing this, I'm essentially trading off a standard economics major $50k starting salary and experience in a job for a lot of emotional instability, probably around that amount of money if I stick to normal circumstances and a shot at much more. I have the potential of being a millionaire early in life, getting financially comfortable at a very young age and the options of being able to take my financial gain and do something else with it either charitably or as an entrepreneur. In my experiment after college, I have to determine if that's worth it; however, I'm not so certain skill level and knowledge of this game equates to success more than my talents in another field might. It's tough to gauge my skill level even to myself. There is no measuring stick for that. Sure, results will tell you something, and 2 big weekend tournaments along with a big second place finish in a period of 5 months should tell me that I have enough talent for the game, but I haven't seen that translate into anything. I want consistent earnings and success and shots at the big tournaments where I can make a name for myself. I can't just go take shots at huge tournaments if I'm not financially backed, which I don't want to do. I really wonder if I've changed my game when the results weren't there to a dangerous point. I certainly know I'm running worse than expected over the period of time since I've been an official professional, but that really shouldn't matter. I believe in myself and my ability to succeed at anything, but right now, it's been really difficult to understand the game. Bad beats happen to everyone and every successful player, but if they always happen at inopportune times, it's possible to never win. You will lose probably 99.9% of the tournaments you enter or be dissatisfied with the result. If you are successful in final tables 5% of the time, you are probably very good. I'm just struggling right now.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Blockbuster
Wow. What a time to be flying in the air back to Las Vegas. When I got off the plane and heard the details of the trade, I have to admit that I was thrilled. Two main reasons:
1. We got rid of Larry Hughes, a player who I believed brought out of worst of the Cavaliers.
2. We got Ben Wallace, a playoff, championship tested defender that can rebound.
These two things are enough for me to approve of the trade. When I learned that we lost Donyell Marshall, a fairly large contract for something that can actually shoot in Wally S., I was even more thrilled. The only player I would have liked to see still in Cleveland is Gooden, but we essentially replaced him with Wallace/Smith, significantly improving our big man rotation. Newble was a great role player and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back here in the future, but will I miss him? No, this guy barely played prior to the injuries we had this season. Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons never played either. Essentially, we just dumped junk for a fresh start. I understand that we did take on a lot of salaries, but we did lose Hughes in that same thing and from what I understand, Wallace's contract matches his. Wally is a big salary jump. What I love is we somehow convinced them to just throw in a second round draft pick. Two notable Cavs second round draft picks are Carlos Boozer and Daniel Gibson.
I believe that anyone that says Hughes had any value to this team is either 1. blind or 2. stupid. This guy threw up wild shots and because he started making a few on them in the last two weeks people suddenly went to his defense. HE MISSED A 3 FOOT JUMPER FOR THE WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS! When the Cavs get healthy with Sasha, Gibson, and Varajao, we will be the deepest team in the East if not the entire NBA. Anyone calling this trade just "a lateral trade" is an ignorant sports columnist that should be fired immediately and never invited back to ESPN. One of my favorite sites dedicated to Larry Hughes says it best
That being said look for the next 10 games to be tough and the Cavs to maybe win 3 of them. Chemistry isn't something easy to come buy and this move is as risky as they get. The X factor that no one realizes though is how much better Lebron makes everyone around him. We had a bunch of bums that looked average or maybe even good because of Lebron. Now that we have some average talent, these players will start looking a whole lot better. On the same note, Ben Wallace probably couldn't be happier going from the confused Bulls to a legitimate championship contender.
Look at it this way. Our team was obviously not good enough to win the championship. We had to do something. This trade does make our team better, but will it be enough? We'll find out in the coming weeks.
I didn't even mention Delonte West, who provides a player at the point guard that we could use.
LOST (spoilers involved)
LOST was a standard episode last night. We needed to know how Kate got off of her charges to let the flash forward plot move forward. On top of that, we see that she has a child, but it's actually Claire's baby further raising questions about what happened. My new long term prediction is that we will see how this all went down with the Oceanic Six this season. Next season will be more of an explanation of the island and the events after the island, while the final season will be the return to the island and the rescue of the people left behind. I don't have much to say, but to sit back and enjoy this show. Predictions are almost never right. I would like to recant my statement to certain friends about how long I could hold a live grenade in my mouth. I believe I could do this for legitimately 4 hours and not 5 days or infinity as I once predicted.
Survivor
This was the best episode of the year. I think the Favorites made a big mistake kicking out Yau-Man and that Ozzy, as always was right. Eliza should have been booted if it wasn't Parvati. You need to strengthen your tribe and win all challenges, so you can go into the merge and pick off people from the other tribe with numbers. I really do like Jon Penner though and hope he weasels his way deep again. He's always entertaining. I don't even know how the Fans are winning. They are so quirky, odd and bad it's funny.
Ty, I tried to do a lot of research about the dunk contest, but it's a tough question and so I just decided to pick the 5 I remembered the most.
5. Dee Brown arm over the face dunk. Extremely creative at the time and probably tough.
4. Spud Webb one bounce dunk. He's 5 foot 7. Give this little man some credit and I just liked his name when I was little.
3. Foul line dunk by all those who tried it. Probably one of the toughest difficulty ever.
2. Vince Carter--anything this guy did that one dunk contest arm in basket, two handed almost free throw jam, behind the backboard, under the leg.
1. Jason Richardson off the backboard under the leg. This is the toughest dunk ever made.
David T. wrote "After reading your recent article on Pocketfives I was left with some questions regarding your hand analysis: Did you chart the hand rankings based on chip stack and place in mtt? While playing short-stacked frequently while deep in mtts, are you more looking to creep up in the $ or move into a position with a stack that would allow you to make more moves? How has your early game changed since your hand analysis and aggressiveness?"
First off, I want to say thanks for a poker related question because I love answering these and keep them coming.
When I charted my hands, I did it just based solely on the hand, but I took notes next to each one so I had a point of reference. I think you can learn more based on chip stack and place, but for this purpose, I just wanted to look at specific hands.
The short stack question is a good one because I often find myself short stacked in tournaments and I don't really mind being there. The key when playing short stack poker is to look for spots where you won't get called. Essentially, when short stacked, it is sometimes better to look for a spot where you won't get called opposed to one where it is absolutely certain. For example, if someone raises in early position and you look at 77, I prefer folding here and looking for a spot where I have fold equity and am the first one to open the pot. So waiting for a 9 10 off suit is something I would almost rather do here because it gives me a chance to pick up chips without getting called. Obviously some hands are so strong that you have to go with them. 99+ or AQ are probably those hands or when you have a pretty solid hand in the blinds and a late position raiser comes in where you are obviously beating his range of hands.
My early game has changed in the following ways. I just try to be more careful with marginal hands and I realize that passing up a marginal situation with some of the hands I charted is not a bad play. Even if I'm maybe 55%, it's not worth it when I am almost guaranteed of finding a better spot later on. I've really reevaluated situations where I'm raised post-flop as well. I think I've been less likely to move my chips in situations where I may be ahead, but I'm only getting called by a hand that's crushing me. This may seem like simple ideas, but places where you have top pair weak kicker and someone raises you early on. I'm more apt to try to read their later street bets than move all my chips in. This may be a loss of aggressiveness in these situations, but I think it has improved my game.
1. We got rid of Larry Hughes, a player who I believed brought out of worst of the Cavaliers.
2. We got Ben Wallace, a playoff, championship tested defender that can rebound.
These two things are enough for me to approve of the trade. When I learned that we lost Donyell Marshall, a fairly large contract for something that can actually shoot in Wally S., I was even more thrilled. The only player I would have liked to see still in Cleveland is Gooden, but we essentially replaced him with Wallace/Smith, significantly improving our big man rotation. Newble was a great role player and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back here in the future, but will I miss him? No, this guy barely played prior to the injuries we had this season. Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons never played either. Essentially, we just dumped junk for a fresh start. I understand that we did take on a lot of salaries, but we did lose Hughes in that same thing and from what I understand, Wallace's contract matches his. Wally is a big salary jump. What I love is we somehow convinced them to just throw in a second round draft pick. Two notable Cavs second round draft picks are Carlos Boozer and Daniel Gibson.
I believe that anyone that says Hughes had any value to this team is either 1. blind or 2. stupid. This guy threw up wild shots and because he started making a few on them in the last two weeks people suddenly went to his defense. HE MISSED A 3 FOOT JUMPER FOR THE WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS! When the Cavs get healthy with Sasha, Gibson, and Varajao, we will be the deepest team in the East if not the entire NBA. Anyone calling this trade just "a lateral trade" is an ignorant sports columnist that should be fired immediately and never invited back to ESPN. One of my favorite sites dedicated to Larry Hughes says it best
That being said look for the next 10 games to be tough and the Cavs to maybe win 3 of them. Chemistry isn't something easy to come buy and this move is as risky as they get. The X factor that no one realizes though is how much better Lebron makes everyone around him. We had a bunch of bums that looked average or maybe even good because of Lebron. Now that we have some average talent, these players will start looking a whole lot better. On the same note, Ben Wallace probably couldn't be happier going from the confused Bulls to a legitimate championship contender.
Look at it this way. Our team was obviously not good enough to win the championship. We had to do something. This trade does make our team better, but will it be enough? We'll find out in the coming weeks.
I didn't even mention Delonte West, who provides a player at the point guard that we could use.
LOST (spoilers involved)
LOST was a standard episode last night. We needed to know how Kate got off of her charges to let the flash forward plot move forward. On top of that, we see that she has a child, but it's actually Claire's baby further raising questions about what happened. My new long term prediction is that we will see how this all went down with the Oceanic Six this season. Next season will be more of an explanation of the island and the events after the island, while the final season will be the return to the island and the rescue of the people left behind. I don't have much to say, but to sit back and enjoy this show. Predictions are almost never right. I would like to recant my statement to certain friends about how long I could hold a live grenade in my mouth. I believe I could do this for legitimately 4 hours and not 5 days or infinity as I once predicted.
Survivor
This was the best episode of the year. I think the Favorites made a big mistake kicking out Yau-Man and that Ozzy, as always was right. Eliza should have been booted if it wasn't Parvati. You need to strengthen your tribe and win all challenges, so you can go into the merge and pick off people from the other tribe with numbers. I really do like Jon Penner though and hope he weasels his way deep again. He's always entertaining. I don't even know how the Fans are winning. They are so quirky, odd and bad it's funny.
Ty, I tried to do a lot of research about the dunk contest, but it's a tough question and so I just decided to pick the 5 I remembered the most.
5. Dee Brown arm over the face dunk. Extremely creative at the time and probably tough.
4. Spud Webb one bounce dunk. He's 5 foot 7. Give this little man some credit and I just liked his name when I was little.
3. Foul line dunk by all those who tried it. Probably one of the toughest difficulty ever.
2. Vince Carter--anything this guy did that one dunk contest arm in basket, two handed almost free throw jam, behind the backboard, under the leg.
1. Jason Richardson off the backboard under the leg. This is the toughest dunk ever made.
David T. wrote "After reading your recent article on Pocketfives I was left with some questions regarding your hand analysis: Did you chart the hand rankings based on chip stack and place in mtt? While playing short-stacked frequently while deep in mtts, are you more looking to creep up in the $ or move into a position with a stack that would allow you to make more moves? How has your early game changed since your hand analysis and aggressiveness?"
First off, I want to say thanks for a poker related question because I love answering these and keep them coming.
When I charted my hands, I did it just based solely on the hand, but I took notes next to each one so I had a point of reference. I think you can learn more based on chip stack and place, but for this purpose, I just wanted to look at specific hands.
The short stack question is a good one because I often find myself short stacked in tournaments and I don't really mind being there. The key when playing short stack poker is to look for spots where you won't get called. Essentially, when short stacked, it is sometimes better to look for a spot where you won't get called opposed to one where it is absolutely certain. For example, if someone raises in early position and you look at 77, I prefer folding here and looking for a spot where I have fold equity and am the first one to open the pot. So waiting for a 9 10 off suit is something I would almost rather do here because it gives me a chance to pick up chips without getting called. Obviously some hands are so strong that you have to go with them. 99+ or AQ are probably those hands or when you have a pretty solid hand in the blinds and a late position raiser comes in where you are obviously beating his range of hands.
My early game has changed in the following ways. I just try to be more careful with marginal hands and I realize that passing up a marginal situation with some of the hands I charted is not a bad play. Even if I'm maybe 55%, it's not worth it when I am almost guaranteed of finding a better spot later on. I've really reevaluated situations where I'm raised post-flop as well. I think I've been less likely to move my chips in situations where I may be ahead, but I'm only getting called by a hand that's crushing me. This may seem like simple ideas, but places where you have top pair weak kicker and someone raises you early on. I'm more apt to try to read their later street bets than move all my chips in. This may be a loss of aggressiveness in these situations, but I think it has improved my game.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Age of Turbulence and Questions
So I've been able to knock off reading from the book Age of Turbulence by Alan Greenspan. Greenspan, I hope as everyone knows, was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve for a long period of time and involved in many of the underlying economic decisions of this country since even before he was sworn in as Chairman. I can't really go into too much detail about all the parts I love in this book because it's highly economic based, but I do think I got the answer to one question that everyone seems to know the answer to one way or the other, but no one knows why. That question is why was Bill Clinton a good President? Most of the answers to this are along the lines of "he was outstanding and look at the economic boom we had while he was in office" or "he was terrible and used a cigar for something other than smoking." Most people don't have a clue why he was great or why they think he was terrible, but I think I finally found my answer in the way Greenspan recounts their interactions throughout the years. First, Clinton made many promises throughout his campaign that were lofty and would cost a lot of money. When Clinton met with Greenspan on their first meeting, Greenspan recalls one meeting that was highly intellectual. Clinton asked poignant questions and really grasped the advice of the Chairman. The advice was in a nutshell, the government had to curb spending, all his campaign promises would cost a lot of money, but for the long term economic health of the country, the government needed to put the brakes on deficit spending that marked the Reagan years. In the coming years. Clinton understood the big picture, and despite being painted by Republicans as a liberal, the most important first decisions of fiscal conservatism were carried out by him. This action along with the action of the fed paved the wave for the technological change and explosive growth that we came to know in the 90's. Essentially, a President was able to be intelligent, take advice of an adviser closest to the action and make something happen. It's apparent from Greenspan that this was the total opposite of the current Bush Administration. While our budget surplus grew and grew throughout the late 90's and early 2000's, Greenspan continued to support fiscal conservatism with Clinton to a point where early in the Bush Administration the Fed was actually worrying about a government surplus. This paved the way for rhetoric leading to the Bush Tax Cut. While he supported a tax cut, Greenspan was not happy about the way this tax cut took place because the discussion did not focus on the fiscal conservatism that got to this point, but rather took a highly politicized route. Further, the administration was stubborn in their spending that when renewed estimates about the budget came out, spending remained high while tax cuts continued. The work of Clinton and Greenspan over the course of 8 years had been undone by an irresponsible Congress and President.
On another note, the book is extremely readable even if you aren't an economics major or know the slightest thing about economics.
Novels or Questions?
Dave, the legendary party spot host that we addressed in a few blogs asked, "How would your fix the primary process so that states could still receive individual attention from their candidates while making sure that every vote has equal weight in determining a nominee and also do you think that my frustrations will be shared by many and if so, how might this feeling of disenfranchisement affect Republican turnout in the general election?"
First off, calling me a "liberal ass" is extremely ignorant considering I continuously promote a conservative economic policy. Just because I support some more progressive issues out there, does not make me a liberal ass. To address the first question, it is apparent our primary process needs a fix as judged the number of states that illegally moved their primaries to try to be a greater factor in the process. I think the primary process should be selected arbitrarily with 10 states being selected in 5 bi-weekly voting blocks. A random drawing will draw 10 states together before each Presidential primary process two weeks before the first primary. Here are my two main reasons.
1. It will allow each state their own fair allotment of time over 2 weeks. Candidates will have to choose which states they campaign for all the time prior to the "draft." This allows them to pick which states they believe will be important (one's with more delegates obviously), but gives smaller states 2 weeks of time split between 10 states.
2. States can no longer argue since it's luck of the draw and in the next election, they might be the first up. I think it adds some more fun to the process too that can really get people engaged in the political process. If more people are interested in the process, we get a more democratic election.
The fact is that everyone will have a complaint about any process we choose, but I certainly think that having the same states decide every single time is ludicrous. McCain would probably not be in this if it wasn't for his win in little New Hampshire of all places.
To the second part of your question, I think voter turnout will be about the same for Republicans, but if you get two candidates like McCain-Obama that appeal to moderate, different voters, you will get a big turnout from the moderate demographic.
Adam B. asked "Is the Democratic party going to beat themselves before November?" By this, I mean will this heated battle in the primary campaign between Obama and Clinton be too much of a burden on them when they face a very-beatable John McCain / Huckabee (speculation) in November, or will the winner get a much needed boost into the ultimate campaign?
I think the Democratic Party will lag behind if their process goes all the way to convention. It's just a matter of focus and time rather than a war of words. Obama and Clinton have really been more civilized towards each other for both their interests after heated media and debate battles earlier in the process. What will hurt though is McCain having the entire focus of the Republican party, while I can assume many voters on the Democratic side would feel disengaged and exhausted if their candidate lost a long battle for the nomination.
Adam B. also asked when referring to the NIU shooting "Can these kind of things be stopped on one of the most unprotecting and naive places in a city, a college campus? I have been thinking about this all morning, and I still have no answer as to a solution or means of security. Any thoughts?
My thoughts on these things other than imagining what it would take in someone to really do something like this is how have individuals become so disconnected with one another that we can't stop this on a personal level. I think one trade off of becoming so technologically dependent is our necessity for quickness and society when human relationships are nothing resembling the microwave society we expect. These things really can't be stopped and playing them on the news only furthers the problems like many of the terrible things in the world, but as idealistic as this sounds, this kind of thing would rarely happen if people just connected with their family, friends and other humans. How that happens? You know as well as I do.
Adam B. also asked about the C.C. Sabathia contract talks in Cleveland. My opinion on this whole topic is that I trust the Indians. I think Shapiro had his price and C.C. had his and they were worlds apart. C.C. will likely be gone next year. I believe that the Indians and any baseball team should spend money on pitching if anything. The problem with the Indians is that they don't have the fan support and revenue any more to go throwing $100 million contracts around on one player. That being said, if the Indians are a contender, ride C.C. out and let him redeem himself. If they Indians are not a contender, let's rob the shit out of the Yankees. I've seriously learned my lesson from pitchers like Bartolo Colon. Long term consistency is what makes pitchers great and C.C. isn't there yet. I would, however, take a championship with his help and have him be gone next year, then to hurt our chances in 1 year.
That's correct people, 3 questions in one comment on 3 different topics from one Adam B.
Keith J. asked "Do you think that the Cavs have any chance to win an NBA title this season?"
I may shock people with this answer, but I do believe we can win a title. I put the odds at something like 60 to 1, but I think out of 60 times, we should win 1. I think people underestimate Lebron in this league. He single-handedly dismantled Detroit last year. He runs the show and he always shows up in the playoffs. The Cavs have beat Boston twice this year. We have been playing solid despite having 2 of our better players gone for most of the season, and I think Lebron would own Detroit in a seven game series. Against the West, it would just be a matter of match ups against the right team. There are teams in the West that we play great against, and other's that we don't. We can't beat the Suns, Rockets, or Spurs in a seven game series ever ever ever. We would have a shot against the Lakers or Jazz, and I'm not sure about the Mavs. I would probably say we can't beat them if I had to pick. The fact is though that the chances are slim because the team is basically Lebron and his bums. We need to clean out the bums and bring in one star to replace Hughes and a solid point guard to become a consistent contender year in and year out. With our potential in James we should have 5 rings by the end of his career if he stays here.
Mike Z. asked two questions:
1. Where do you think Terrelle Pryor will go to college and why?
Here is what I think he should think about his options.
Oregon--an athletic Vince Young like QB in Dennis Dixon just had tremendous success and a potential national championship before his injury. I like Oregon.
Penn State--I would have a 4 year starting ticket and could bring glory back to a program that hasn't been a force in the Big 10 for a while. I'm closer to home, but I'm choosing this over two better programs at Michigan and OSU
Michigan--I'm heading to play for a coach that just had his actions define what kind of character he is. I'll probably end up on the cover of ESPN not for my play, but for violating NCAA rules. They have lost to OSU 4 straight years, but I could bring back the glory to this team and begin building the program from scratch.
OSU-They have been embarrassed in two straight title games, but have nevertheless been there. A mobile QB with an arm like Troy Smith had great success here along with the Heisman. This team recruits the best OL in the land, so I'll always have protection. Todd Boeckman looks like Charlie Frye compared to me, but the coach may still have me wait a year.
Moral of the story-he's picking Oregon or OSU for the above reasons, but I'm going to side with my heart here and say OSU can have hope for the next 4 years as it tries to avenge itself against the SEC because this QB is going to OSU.
2. Who won the Tiff beer pong tournament? I totally forgot.
To this I say, are you going to brag in 70 years?
Finally, Tyler from the city of Brotherly Love said "I would love to know your opinion on this years dunk contest along with your top 5 dunk contest dunks of all time."
I really enjoyed this year's dunk contest because I thought it was the revenge of Dwight Howard who got completely shafted out of last year's contest. His dunk last year was a sticker on one hand of his face that he put high on the backboard and then dunked. It was extremely creative and still a good dunk, but the judges didn't like it so out in round 1. This year he kept up the creativity and did some great dunks. The volleyball tap off the backboard was his best dunk followed by the behind the basket dunk (if he makes it first try it's the most difficult dunk in history. I also like when a star wins because it makes it more memorable. I hate players that win this and are extremely forgettable. The best dunkers should be in every competition, but there has to be a great balance with the best players. Who would not be thrilled to watch a dunk contest with Lebron, Kobe, Vince Carter, Dwight Howard?
I'll get to the second part of this question after some research.
On another note, the book is extremely readable even if you aren't an economics major or know the slightest thing about economics.
Novels or Questions?
Dave, the legendary party spot host that we addressed in a few blogs asked, "How would your fix the primary process so that states could still receive individual attention from their candidates while making sure that every vote has equal weight in determining a nominee and also do you think that my frustrations will be shared by many and if so, how might this feeling of disenfranchisement affect Republican turnout in the general election?"
First off, calling me a "liberal ass" is extremely ignorant considering I continuously promote a conservative economic policy. Just because I support some more progressive issues out there, does not make me a liberal ass. To address the first question, it is apparent our primary process needs a fix as judged the number of states that illegally moved their primaries to try to be a greater factor in the process. I think the primary process should be selected arbitrarily with 10 states being selected in 5 bi-weekly voting blocks. A random drawing will draw 10 states together before each Presidential primary process two weeks before the first primary. Here are my two main reasons.
1. It will allow each state their own fair allotment of time over 2 weeks. Candidates will have to choose which states they campaign for all the time prior to the "draft." This allows them to pick which states they believe will be important (one's with more delegates obviously), but gives smaller states 2 weeks of time split between 10 states.
2. States can no longer argue since it's luck of the draw and in the next election, they might be the first up. I think it adds some more fun to the process too that can really get people engaged in the political process. If more people are interested in the process, we get a more democratic election.
The fact is that everyone will have a complaint about any process we choose, but I certainly think that having the same states decide every single time is ludicrous. McCain would probably not be in this if it wasn't for his win in little New Hampshire of all places.
To the second part of your question, I think voter turnout will be about the same for Republicans, but if you get two candidates like McCain-Obama that appeal to moderate, different voters, you will get a big turnout from the moderate demographic.
Adam B. asked "Is the Democratic party going to beat themselves before November?" By this, I mean will this heated battle in the primary campaign between Obama and Clinton be too much of a burden on them when they face a very-beatable John McCain / Huckabee (speculation) in November, or will the winner get a much needed boost into the ultimate campaign?
I think the Democratic Party will lag behind if their process goes all the way to convention. It's just a matter of focus and time rather than a war of words. Obama and Clinton have really been more civilized towards each other for both their interests after heated media and debate battles earlier in the process. What will hurt though is McCain having the entire focus of the Republican party, while I can assume many voters on the Democratic side would feel disengaged and exhausted if their candidate lost a long battle for the nomination.
Adam B. also asked when referring to the NIU shooting "Can these kind of things be stopped on one of the most unprotecting and naive places in a city, a college campus? I have been thinking about this all morning, and I still have no answer as to a solution or means of security. Any thoughts?
My thoughts on these things other than imagining what it would take in someone to really do something like this is how have individuals become so disconnected with one another that we can't stop this on a personal level. I think one trade off of becoming so technologically dependent is our necessity for quickness and society when human relationships are nothing resembling the microwave society we expect. These things really can't be stopped and playing them on the news only furthers the problems like many of the terrible things in the world, but as idealistic as this sounds, this kind of thing would rarely happen if people just connected with their family, friends and other humans. How that happens? You know as well as I do.
Adam B. also asked about the C.C. Sabathia contract talks in Cleveland. My opinion on this whole topic is that I trust the Indians. I think Shapiro had his price and C.C. had his and they were worlds apart. C.C. will likely be gone next year. I believe that the Indians and any baseball team should spend money on pitching if anything. The problem with the Indians is that they don't have the fan support and revenue any more to go throwing $100 million contracts around on one player. That being said, if the Indians are a contender, ride C.C. out and let him redeem himself. If they Indians are not a contender, let's rob the shit out of the Yankees. I've seriously learned my lesson from pitchers like Bartolo Colon. Long term consistency is what makes pitchers great and C.C. isn't there yet. I would, however, take a championship with his help and have him be gone next year, then to hurt our chances in 1 year.
That's correct people, 3 questions in one comment on 3 different topics from one Adam B.
Keith J. asked "Do you think that the Cavs have any chance to win an NBA title this season?"
I may shock people with this answer, but I do believe we can win a title. I put the odds at something like 60 to 1, but I think out of 60 times, we should win 1. I think people underestimate Lebron in this league. He single-handedly dismantled Detroit last year. He runs the show and he always shows up in the playoffs. The Cavs have beat Boston twice this year. We have been playing solid despite having 2 of our better players gone for most of the season, and I think Lebron would own Detroit in a seven game series. Against the West, it would just be a matter of match ups against the right team. There are teams in the West that we play great against, and other's that we don't. We can't beat the Suns, Rockets, or Spurs in a seven game series ever ever ever. We would have a shot against the Lakers or Jazz, and I'm not sure about the Mavs. I would probably say we can't beat them if I had to pick. The fact is though that the chances are slim because the team is basically Lebron and his bums. We need to clean out the bums and bring in one star to replace Hughes and a solid point guard to become a consistent contender year in and year out. With our potential in James we should have 5 rings by the end of his career if he stays here.
Mike Z. asked two questions:
1. Where do you think Terrelle Pryor will go to college and why?
Here is what I think he should think about his options.
Oregon--an athletic Vince Young like QB in Dennis Dixon just had tremendous success and a potential national championship before his injury. I like Oregon.
Penn State--I would have a 4 year starting ticket and could bring glory back to a program that hasn't been a force in the Big 10 for a while. I'm closer to home, but I'm choosing this over two better programs at Michigan and OSU
Michigan--I'm heading to play for a coach that just had his actions define what kind of character he is. I'll probably end up on the cover of ESPN not for my play, but for violating NCAA rules. They have lost to OSU 4 straight years, but I could bring back the glory to this team and begin building the program from scratch.
OSU-They have been embarrassed in two straight title games, but have nevertheless been there. A mobile QB with an arm like Troy Smith had great success here along with the Heisman. This team recruits the best OL in the land, so I'll always have protection. Todd Boeckman looks like Charlie Frye compared to me, but the coach may still have me wait a year.
Moral of the story-he's picking Oregon or OSU for the above reasons, but I'm going to side with my heart here and say OSU can have hope for the next 4 years as it tries to avenge itself against the SEC because this QB is going to OSU.
2. Who won the Tiff beer pong tournament? I totally forgot.
To this I say, are you going to brag in 70 years?
Finally, Tyler from the city of Brotherly Love said "I would love to know your opinion on this years dunk contest along with your top 5 dunk contest dunks of all time."
I really enjoyed this year's dunk contest because I thought it was the revenge of Dwight Howard who got completely shafted out of last year's contest. His dunk last year was a sticker on one hand of his face that he put high on the backboard and then dunked. It was extremely creative and still a good dunk, but the judges didn't like it so out in round 1. This year he kept up the creativity and did some great dunks. The volleyball tap off the backboard was his best dunk followed by the behind the basket dunk (if he makes it first try it's the most difficult dunk in history. I also like when a star wins because it makes it more memorable. I hate players that win this and are extremely forgettable. The best dunkers should be in every competition, but there has to be a great balance with the best players. Who would not be thrilled to watch a dunk contest with Lebron, Kobe, Vince Carter, Dwight Howard?
I'll get to the second part of this question after some research.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Poker Break, Chicago and Home
I have been updating less frequently because I've really been away. I'm back in Cleveland right now and saw my new niece today. I'll have to put some pics up when I get back to Vegas. Chicago was an absolute blast and I have a few good stories to right about there. It was one of my favorite weekends there for Valentine's Day and spending some great time with Anna.
I haven't played any poker and I'm enjoying it. I do still go in to check winners of tournaments and see how the weekend played out as I did some huge events on Full Tilt. There will always be more events though. I'll write a better blog addressing all the questions out there on Thursday or Friday this week because I'm in Cleveland until Thurs. Until then, tell your friends about the blog.
One other thing as per request is I have opened up comments to anyone and also anonymous posters. I will of course monitor those for anything inappropriate that I don't want on this blog, but I think it's a great way for people who don't have a Google account to post. If you are asking questions, make sure to leave your name, so I can give you a shout out when I answer the question or address your comment.
I haven't played any poker and I'm enjoying it. I do still go in to check winners of tournaments and see how the weekend played out as I did some huge events on Full Tilt. There will always be more events though. I'll write a better blog addressing all the questions out there on Thursday or Friday this week because I'm in Cleveland until Thurs. Until then, tell your friends about the blog.
One other thing as per request is I have opened up comments to anyone and also anonymous posters. I will of course monitor those for anything inappropriate that I don't want on this blog, but I think it's a great way for people who don't have a Google account to post. If you are asking questions, make sure to leave your name, so I can give you a shout out when I answer the question or address your comment.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Sayid Woods? and 1/2 NL heads up
Man does that Sayid hit a nice drive. I thought I would chime in after one of the strangest LOST episodes ever. Not only does nothing at all get answered in this episode, we open up about a bag of 500 questions. This is just standard classic LOST. Love it or hate it, that's what this show is all about. Now I can't say that I didn't call it with Ben being the guy at the end because I told my buddy Keith that Ben would either be the economist or Sayid's boss. The picture is starting to become a little more clear though. It's apparent that Ben is essentially holding the other Losties hostage in a way to protect himself and have some of the Oceanic Six eliminate his enemies. Look for Matthew Abbadon(big scary black guy that talks to Naomi and Hurley) to be on Ben's kill list.
I think the next episode will be a Desmond episode and we will finally get answers to who is on the boat.
Survivor: Micronesia fan vs favorites was outstanding tonight. The total blindside that occurred on the first tribal council is always a telling sign that shit is about to hit the fan. I think the guy that masterminded that whole plan just took a super huge risk in week 1, but it paid off. If that risk doesn't work, he's basically gone. On a side note, when Ozzy (my favorite survivor in the history of the show) is in the water, it is about the same as Tiger Woods with a Sunday lead at the majors. Game over! He also was caught late night with a little romantic rendezvous with Amanda. He's my hero.
On the poker front, my new article is up and it's very technical and poker related. You can find it on the home page of pocketfives.com
A lot of the articles on this site don't deal with very specific poker related information. That's perfectly fine, but I wanted to add some content for people to think about and throw around. Also, the experiment I really did has really improved my thinking process in the game. So many times in poker, the real difficult decision is the hand that makes or breaks the tournament. The more you are thinking about those situations and the previous failures in decision making, the better you can improve your specific game. I have really been trying to work on my tournament game and this was a great start. On a side note, if you want to read some solid poker articles, I've really enjoyed Bond18's articles on Pocketfives.
When I have been knocked out of tournaments lately, I've been playing a lot of 1/2 NL heads up. Last night I got destroyed by an opponent and it was partially my fault and partially the cards. I had J 8 of diamonds on one hand and raised to $6 from the button, he raised to $20. I called. Flop came J 3 2d. He made a large continuation bet here, but I had reason to believe I was in decent shape here so I called. Turn was a 4d giving me a flush draw. He checked. Now earlier in the game, I had made a similar play here and bet the turn with nothing. I did the same here and was raised all in by 7 7d where I instantly called, river 7c good bye $550 pot. That along with a couple other dumb plays and misfortune cost me. It's always a good sign when the chat box starts filling up with people lining up to play you. Either way, I think there are a couple lessons to learn from heads up poker.
1. It is 90% about how you feel the game is going.
2. Sometimes, no matter what you will never be able to win and the opponent will talk trash to you despite the insurmountable luck curve you are experiencing.
3. Doing the same thing over and over or mixing it up completely are very important.
4. Adapting to your opponent and then readapting and readapting is the key to winning. It's hard to explain, but this is all feel.
5. Don't play someone when you have $500 and they have $15, you have nothing to gain.
I think the next episode will be a Desmond episode and we will finally get answers to who is on the boat.
Survivor: Micronesia fan vs favorites was outstanding tonight. The total blindside that occurred on the first tribal council is always a telling sign that shit is about to hit the fan. I think the guy that masterminded that whole plan just took a super huge risk in week 1, but it paid off. If that risk doesn't work, he's basically gone. On a side note, when Ozzy (my favorite survivor in the history of the show) is in the water, it is about the same as Tiger Woods with a Sunday lead at the majors. Game over! He also was caught late night with a little romantic rendezvous with Amanda. He's my hero.
On the poker front, my new article is up and it's very technical and poker related. You can find it on the home page of pocketfives.com
A lot of the articles on this site don't deal with very specific poker related information. That's perfectly fine, but I wanted to add some content for people to think about and throw around. Also, the experiment I really did has really improved my thinking process in the game. So many times in poker, the real difficult decision is the hand that makes or breaks the tournament. The more you are thinking about those situations and the previous failures in decision making, the better you can improve your specific game. I have really been trying to work on my tournament game and this was a great start. On a side note, if you want to read some solid poker articles, I've really enjoyed Bond18's articles on Pocketfives.
When I have been knocked out of tournaments lately, I've been playing a lot of 1/2 NL heads up. Last night I got destroyed by an opponent and it was partially my fault and partially the cards. I had J 8 of diamonds on one hand and raised to $6 from the button, he raised to $20. I called. Flop came J 3 2d. He made a large continuation bet here, but I had reason to believe I was in decent shape here so I called. Turn was a 4d giving me a flush draw. He checked. Now earlier in the game, I had made a similar play here and bet the turn with nothing. I did the same here and was raised all in by 7 7d where I instantly called, river 7c good bye $550 pot. That along with a couple other dumb plays and misfortune cost me. It's always a good sign when the chat box starts filling up with people lining up to play you. Either way, I think there are a couple lessons to learn from heads up poker.
1. It is 90% about how you feel the game is going.
2. Sometimes, no matter what you will never be able to win and the opponent will talk trash to you despite the insurmountable luck curve you are experiencing.
3. Doing the same thing over and over or mixing it up completely are very important.
4. Adapting to your opponent and then readapting and readapting is the key to winning. It's hard to explain, but this is all feel.
5. Don't play someone when you have $500 and they have $15, you have nothing to gain.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Roger Clemens, Obama, A little Cavs, Questions, Pro Bowl
It's been a while since my last blog, and I don't have any excuses. I'm heading to Chicago and Cleveland for Valentine's Day and to see my new niece at home.
The big thing in the sports news is Roger Clemens testimony to Congress regarding allegations of use his of HGH. I'm sick and tired of hearing about this garbage every single day on the sports news. The game of baseball is forever tarnished in so many ways because of the media attention given to the steroids scandal. Truthfully, I blame just about everyone in this, the trainers, the players, the teams, the managers, and the league executives. Now everything is coming back to haunt the league with two of it's most prominent players likely lying under oath. Why would Andy Pettitte lie in a sworn affidavit after admitting his use of HGH? It seems like whenever steroid allegations have come out, it's gone through the same cycle. There are really only two lines in this:
1. Tell the truth and why (Pettitte, Paul Byrd)
2. Lie, go through some investigative situation, get caught in your lie, ruin your reputation and ruin the sport further (Bonds, Palmerio, McGwire, Sosa)
Clemens likely falls into number 2 here. I can't imagine Pettitte who is telling the truth about his use of HGH, an honest, classy player despite his few uses of HGH would go on lying about Clemens. Did he sell out a friend? Probably, but if jail time was the other option by lying about it to federal authorities, I'd tell the truth. Pettitte to me likely knows the truth here and because he is telling the truth he wants the truth to come out about other people that are trying to lie their way out of it.
My favorite line of the testimony comes from Rep. Westmoreland. "If we called everyone who was accused of using steroids before this committee, we'd have to shut this place down." Westmoreland is dead on here because the NFL has probably hundreds of players using HGH. Why does it get any different attention than Roger Clemens? Is it because baseball players keep feeling the need to lie when they are accused and football players take their 4 week suspension?
Clemens is guilty, and he's going to be in deep trouble. Maybe they will give him a cell next to Barry Bonds and they can have home run derby in the prison yard. I sure hope Michael Scofield is in the same prison.
Gaining Momentum
How about the shift in the momentum of the Presidential race to Barack Obama's favor? I attribute this to a few things.
1. Obama has more support from the American people and from individual states. He has won more states because when given time to campaign in a state, he has a clear advantage over Hillary. He has a clear stance that differs from Republicans on the War in Iraq and idealism that every American wants the President to have.
2. With the race narrowed down to Obama and Clinton, I think many Democrats are starting to realize that Hillary is a polarizer. Not many Republicans would cross party lines to vote for Hillary Clinton.
I don't like the whole nomination process with superdelegates. Essentially, the candidate is going to be decided by the superdelegates in this race. These are some 800 party leaders consisting of a wide variety of people, but mostly every prominent Democrat. They don't need to make their vote or endorsement public and I hope it's for a few reasons. I think that these people need to decide who to vote for after all of the primaries are complete. The candidate they should support should be the won that led the primaries. With the race so close, I really wonder what is going to happen. Ohio is now extremely important in this race. A big win for Obama in Ohio to me would make it very difficult to beat him.
40?
Of course I'm talking about Larry Hughes erupting for 40 points against Orlando leading the Cavs to victory. Blind squirrels find nuts every once in a while. Please take note GM's around the league at this tremendous performance by Hughes. If he keeps up this rate, $15 million would be cheap for any team to take on Hughes. That being said, don't expect any moves from Danny Fairy. That's not a spelling mistake. I don't understand how a team that is 0-5 without Lebron and would likely be 5-77 without him is acceptable for our city. Even the Bulls without Jordan would have won about 30 games with the supporting cast in tact.
Pro Bowl
Did you guys see Joe Thomas block? It's a beautiful thing. Did you guys see Derek Anderson? Not such a beautiful thing. How the Browns handle this Derek Anderson situation will make or break this franchise for the next 5 years.
Oh yeah and the Pro Bowl sucks. If you skip it in Madden, it's not worth it in the real world.
Questions
Mike Z. the number one questioner in my blog asked, "Have you seen the new show on Fox, "Moment of Truth"? Its a show where contestants are hooked up to lie detectors and then asked tough questions, such as "Have you ever cheated on your wife" and forced to tell the truth in order to move on and win more money. What do you think about this show? Would you go on it and let America know all your secrets? Whats up with this show?
I have seen this show Mike and one contestant. Then I really determined it to be the dumbest thing in the entire world. First off, why would you lie if you were going to embarrass and possibly ruin your relationship with anybody in your life and not get money for it? If you are on the show to win money at the expense of your relationships, there would never be any reason to lie. Further, I just think the premise of the show is stupid. The show is just not dramatic to me. I would never go on it. Money would never be worth the shame and embarrassment. I scoff at the TV audience in our country that watches and enjoys this show. Then again, I've stuck with Prison Break this long, so I have no one to blame. This show is just a product of the Writer's Strike which is now over. TV has gone completely downhill and when I've watched it, it's either been Friday Night Lights, Prison Break, or LOST. If not those, I usually just turn on HBO On Demand and watch a miniseries like Sopranos or Rome.
Stingerkling AKA Chris P. posing at stingerkling asked:
What advice would you give to an up and coming pro, such as myself, regarding bankroll management? More specifically, how many buy-ins do you suggest having when playing a cash game?
The advice I give anyone to bankroll management is that it's the most important thing in the entire success of a professional in poker. Having the discipline to keep track of and record your winnings at a specific game is important. As far as how many buy-ins I suggest having when playing a cash games. I really think it depends. I think your entire bankroll should never be put at risk past 1-2%. If your bankroll is 100,000, then 1000-2000 should be your maximum buy in. No one really adheres to these rules, but I've found much success lately in playing 2/4 and 1/2 NL. Being comfortable in playing these games knowing I can put 5 buy ins (1000-2000) into these games easily without straining myself is good to know and allows you to take more chances. I do think though that taking shots at the next level is crucial to the progression of a poker player. Taking shots is most certainly going to cost you in the short run, but will give you valuable information in the long run. In cash games, taking shots at higher stakes should never be done after a losing session. The mindset of a player heading to higher stakes needs to be that of a winner. As far as tournaments go, there are many ways to take shots at higher stakes. Satellites to bigger tournaments are something I still utilize as a way to comfortably head up to higher stakes. I believe Chris Ferguson has a great theory as far as tournament buy ins. Never put more than 2% of your bankroll into one tournament.
Tyler in Philly asks one of the best questions in history of my blog.
What is the best party you ever went to at any of Dave's houses??
To clarify for those readers that don't know Dave or our high school/college years in Mentor, Dave's house is the spot and has been the spot since 8th grade for me and even earlier for some others. I probably spent more time at Dave's house on the weekends in high school than all other houses combined. There were some memorable ones at Dave's that I really remember and 4 really jumped out right away. The top 3 are really just undeniable in everyone's mind.
5. New Years 2003. I know we started this one up with a Dave power hour and we had a great crew at this one. To be honest, only 4 stick out in my mind. This sneaks into 5 although the honorable mentions were also very close to this one.
4. First day of Summer after 9th grade graduation. The birth of the WAM club, Keith narrating a national geographic book for me, Tyler's old house getting ran over by the TP monster, and this was all after all the girls had left. Life was in our hands and we had conquered Memorial Junior High and were ready to take on the world and Mentor High School. With a fire outside, this is one of the memories that will never leave me for the rest of my life. The camaraderie I experienced with friends this night on top of a pretty decent sized party that night ranks it up there. On top of that we stayed up all night until the sunset came up and the surreal feeling of the outdoors was something to really describe as first light came up.
3. Dave's graduation party. Coming back from college after our first year, we had finally learned how to party like college. With Dave's class being a year younger, they were in their fun summer and we had KEGS!!!! The mistake of the night was Budweiser in the 3 kegs. The first two kegs were flowing, but by number 3, everyone had really given up. Highlights of the night:
-Mr. Williams trying to bong a beer but taking maybe .8 ounces down before quitting and Dave cleaning up the mess.
-A father-son beer pong battle continued late into the night.
-kegstands
-everyone in the world dancing in the Dave's basement
2. July 10, 2001. How do I remember to date to this one? I just got my license this day, so for me their was reason to celebrate. I believe this party was supervised by Dave's Aunt and Uncle (bad idea). All in all, my estimation would be that there would approximately 400 different people ranging from Freshmen to Seniors oh and even a few adults from the neighborhood. Namely, I woke up on Dave's deck looking over the lake at around 3am when I looked around and didn't see anyone anywhere. In my state of stupor and confusion at what just happened that night, I went upstairs to find Mike Z. and Dave the only two left coming down for some excellent Mrs. Williams lemonade when we all looked at each other like we have just seen a ghost. Noticing that I just randomly showed up in the house at 3am left everything to the imagination and the eruption of laughter that ensued was beyond belief. I still see Z's face in that classic laughter eruption basically saying "Where the $&$* did you come from?" I decided that a wooden porch was my best place to be sleeping that night. On top of that someone was trying to get into their car or something and breaking shit up and I don't know I was on the porch.
1. Fairport House Toga Party-This is the best part that I remember from my entire high school experience. We just graduated from high school and the summer before college was outstanding. Although I made it out of this one by the skin of my teeth and other's unfortunately did not, everyone has their own special memory in this one. Mine was probably 50 people doing "Get Low" TO THE WINDOW TO THE WALL!!!!!!!!! in Togas in the basement. On top of that I believe it was all import beers that night, so none of that light beer. Tons of good pool stories and if it doesn't get broken up by the cops, it can't be number 1. This may be the greatest party in the history of my life.
Honorable Mentions:
Tiff Beer Pong--The only reason this didn't make the top 5 was I think I was a late arrival at this one and didn't get to experience the whole thing even though I went deep in the tournament.
College New Years--Everyone dressed up and we were finally sophisticated and legal to drink. There were nine million people at this one and lots of good friends reuniting.
I might write over the next 6 days, but I'm not sure.
The big thing in the sports news is Roger Clemens testimony to Congress regarding allegations of use his of HGH. I'm sick and tired of hearing about this garbage every single day on the sports news. The game of baseball is forever tarnished in so many ways because of the media attention given to the steroids scandal. Truthfully, I blame just about everyone in this, the trainers, the players, the teams, the managers, and the league executives. Now everything is coming back to haunt the league with two of it's most prominent players likely lying under oath. Why would Andy Pettitte lie in a sworn affidavit after admitting his use of HGH? It seems like whenever steroid allegations have come out, it's gone through the same cycle. There are really only two lines in this:
1. Tell the truth and why (Pettitte, Paul Byrd)
2. Lie, go through some investigative situation, get caught in your lie, ruin your reputation and ruin the sport further (Bonds, Palmerio, McGwire, Sosa)
Clemens likely falls into number 2 here. I can't imagine Pettitte who is telling the truth about his use of HGH, an honest, classy player despite his few uses of HGH would go on lying about Clemens. Did he sell out a friend? Probably, but if jail time was the other option by lying about it to federal authorities, I'd tell the truth. Pettitte to me likely knows the truth here and because he is telling the truth he wants the truth to come out about other people that are trying to lie their way out of it.
My favorite line of the testimony comes from Rep. Westmoreland. "If we called everyone who was accused of using steroids before this committee, we'd have to shut this place down." Westmoreland is dead on here because the NFL has probably hundreds of players using HGH. Why does it get any different attention than Roger Clemens? Is it because baseball players keep feeling the need to lie when they are accused and football players take their 4 week suspension?
Clemens is guilty, and he's going to be in deep trouble. Maybe they will give him a cell next to Barry Bonds and they can have home run derby in the prison yard. I sure hope Michael Scofield is in the same prison.
Gaining Momentum
How about the shift in the momentum of the Presidential race to Barack Obama's favor? I attribute this to a few things.
1. Obama has more support from the American people and from individual states. He has won more states because when given time to campaign in a state, he has a clear advantage over Hillary. He has a clear stance that differs from Republicans on the War in Iraq and idealism that every American wants the President to have.
2. With the race narrowed down to Obama and Clinton, I think many Democrats are starting to realize that Hillary is a polarizer. Not many Republicans would cross party lines to vote for Hillary Clinton.
I don't like the whole nomination process with superdelegates. Essentially, the candidate is going to be decided by the superdelegates in this race. These are some 800 party leaders consisting of a wide variety of people, but mostly every prominent Democrat. They don't need to make their vote or endorsement public and I hope it's for a few reasons. I think that these people need to decide who to vote for after all of the primaries are complete. The candidate they should support should be the won that led the primaries. With the race so close, I really wonder what is going to happen. Ohio is now extremely important in this race. A big win for Obama in Ohio to me would make it very difficult to beat him.
40?
Of course I'm talking about Larry Hughes erupting for 40 points against Orlando leading the Cavs to victory. Blind squirrels find nuts every once in a while. Please take note GM's around the league at this tremendous performance by Hughes. If he keeps up this rate, $15 million would be cheap for any team to take on Hughes. That being said, don't expect any moves from Danny Fairy. That's not a spelling mistake. I don't understand how a team that is 0-5 without Lebron and would likely be 5-77 without him is acceptable for our city. Even the Bulls without Jordan would have won about 30 games with the supporting cast in tact.
Pro Bowl
Did you guys see Joe Thomas block? It's a beautiful thing. Did you guys see Derek Anderson? Not such a beautiful thing. How the Browns handle this Derek Anderson situation will make or break this franchise for the next 5 years.
Oh yeah and the Pro Bowl sucks. If you skip it in Madden, it's not worth it in the real world.
Questions
Mike Z. the number one questioner in my blog asked, "Have you seen the new show on Fox, "Moment of Truth"? Its a show where contestants are hooked up to lie detectors and then asked tough questions, such as "Have you ever cheated on your wife" and forced to tell the truth in order to move on and win more money. What do you think about this show? Would you go on it and let America know all your secrets? Whats up with this show?
I have seen this show Mike and one contestant. Then I really determined it to be the dumbest thing in the entire world. First off, why would you lie if you were going to embarrass and possibly ruin your relationship with anybody in your life and not get money for it? If you are on the show to win money at the expense of your relationships, there would never be any reason to lie. Further, I just think the premise of the show is stupid. The show is just not dramatic to me. I would never go on it. Money would never be worth the shame and embarrassment. I scoff at the TV audience in our country that watches and enjoys this show. Then again, I've stuck with Prison Break this long, so I have no one to blame. This show is just a product of the Writer's Strike which is now over. TV has gone completely downhill and when I've watched it, it's either been Friday Night Lights, Prison Break, or LOST. If not those, I usually just turn on HBO On Demand and watch a miniseries like Sopranos or Rome.
Stingerkling AKA Chris P. posing at stingerkling asked:
What advice would you give to an up and coming pro, such as myself, regarding bankroll management? More specifically, how many buy-ins do you suggest having when playing a cash game?
The advice I give anyone to bankroll management is that it's the most important thing in the entire success of a professional in poker. Having the discipline to keep track of and record your winnings at a specific game is important. As far as how many buy-ins I suggest having when playing a cash games. I really think it depends. I think your entire bankroll should never be put at risk past 1-2%. If your bankroll is 100,000, then 1000-2000 should be your maximum buy in. No one really adheres to these rules, but I've found much success lately in playing 2/4 and 1/2 NL. Being comfortable in playing these games knowing I can put 5 buy ins (1000-2000) into these games easily without straining myself is good to know and allows you to take more chances. I do think though that taking shots at the next level is crucial to the progression of a poker player. Taking shots is most certainly going to cost you in the short run, but will give you valuable information in the long run. In cash games, taking shots at higher stakes should never be done after a losing session. The mindset of a player heading to higher stakes needs to be that of a winner. As far as tournaments go, there are many ways to take shots at higher stakes. Satellites to bigger tournaments are something I still utilize as a way to comfortably head up to higher stakes. I believe Chris Ferguson has a great theory as far as tournament buy ins. Never put more than 2% of your bankroll into one tournament.
Tyler in Philly asks one of the best questions in history of my blog.
What is the best party you ever went to at any of Dave's houses??
To clarify for those readers that don't know Dave or our high school/college years in Mentor, Dave's house is the spot and has been the spot since 8th grade for me and even earlier for some others. I probably spent more time at Dave's house on the weekends in high school than all other houses combined. There were some memorable ones at Dave's that I really remember and 4 really jumped out right away. The top 3 are really just undeniable in everyone's mind.
5. New Years 2003. I know we started this one up with a Dave power hour and we had a great crew at this one. To be honest, only 4 stick out in my mind. This sneaks into 5 although the honorable mentions were also very close to this one.
4. First day of Summer after 9th grade graduation. The birth of the WAM club, Keith narrating a national geographic book for me, Tyler's old house getting ran over by the TP monster, and this was all after all the girls had left. Life was in our hands and we had conquered Memorial Junior High and were ready to take on the world and Mentor High School. With a fire outside, this is one of the memories that will never leave me for the rest of my life. The camaraderie I experienced with friends this night on top of a pretty decent sized party that night ranks it up there. On top of that we stayed up all night until the sunset came up and the surreal feeling of the outdoors was something to really describe as first light came up.
3. Dave's graduation party. Coming back from college after our first year, we had finally learned how to party like college. With Dave's class being a year younger, they were in their fun summer and we had KEGS!!!! The mistake of the night was Budweiser in the 3 kegs. The first two kegs were flowing, but by number 3, everyone had really given up. Highlights of the night:
-Mr. Williams trying to bong a beer but taking maybe .8 ounces down before quitting and Dave cleaning up the mess.
-A father-son beer pong battle continued late into the night.
-kegstands
-everyone in the world dancing in the Dave's basement
2. July 10, 2001. How do I remember to date to this one? I just got my license this day, so for me their was reason to celebrate. I believe this party was supervised by Dave's Aunt and Uncle (bad idea). All in all, my estimation would be that there would approximately 400 different people ranging from Freshmen to Seniors oh and even a few adults from the neighborhood. Namely, I woke up on Dave's deck looking over the lake at around 3am when I looked around and didn't see anyone anywhere. In my state of stupor and confusion at what just happened that night, I went upstairs to find Mike Z. and Dave the only two left coming down for some excellent Mrs. Williams lemonade when we all looked at each other like we have just seen a ghost. Noticing that I just randomly showed up in the house at 3am left everything to the imagination and the eruption of laughter that ensued was beyond belief. I still see Z's face in that classic laughter eruption basically saying "Where the $&$* did you come from?" I decided that a wooden porch was my best place to be sleeping that night. On top of that someone was trying to get into their car or something and breaking shit up and I don't know I was on the porch.
1. Fairport House Toga Party-This is the best part that I remember from my entire high school experience. We just graduated from high school and the summer before college was outstanding. Although I made it out of this one by the skin of my teeth and other's unfortunately did not, everyone has their own special memory in this one. Mine was probably 50 people doing "Get Low" TO THE WINDOW TO THE WALL!!!!!!!!! in Togas in the basement. On top of that I believe it was all import beers that night, so none of that light beer. Tons of good pool stories and if it doesn't get broken up by the cops, it can't be number 1. This may be the greatest party in the history of my life.
Honorable Mentions:
Tiff Beer Pong--The only reason this didn't make the top 5 was I think I was a late arrival at this one and didn't get to experience the whole thing even though I went deep in the tournament.
College New Years--Everyone dressed up and we were finally sophisticated and legal to drink. There were nine million people at this one and lots of good friends reuniting.
I might write over the next 6 days, but I'm not sure.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Strictly Poker Blog
OK, so I just got knocked out of the Venetian Deep Stack $540 event in 30th place for a $864 cash. I'm in a really bad mood because I played for 12 hours and made $300 when the winner was at $60K, but that's just how it goes. What really irritates me is that this tournament prides itself on the "great structure," but that's a joke. Every single online tournament has a better structure than this one except the turbos. When you get up to 3/6k blinds with 1000 ante and the average stack is 120K, that's 20 big blinds, but an M of between 6-7. There is just no play allowed at that point. I hate being in these situations because most decisions are standard and the cards will dictate all the action.
Let's run through the key hands. For the first 3 levels, I again could get nothing going and basically just played solid looking for a good spot. The thing I hate about playing solid early is that there are 6/10 monkeys looking to gamble and blow off all their chips, so if you take the solid approach, you just kind of let the monkeys give other people chips. That doesn't make much sense, but I had that idea today and it's right.
So I played pretty solid until two breaks in when I had around 11K in chips with 4/800 blinds. A pretty good player raised in mid position and I shipped it in with 99. He reluctantly called and showed AQ when I destroyed the 9 4 3 flop. I was able to open up a few more pots and get up to about 27k when I raised UTG+2 with KK to 3200 with 6/1200 blinds. The big blind shipped me in and had me covered, I quickly called and he showed AK. I was up to around 60k. Then nothing very spectacular happened except winning some blinds and hanging right around that mark. With blinds at 1k/2k, I raised to 5k on the button with AK when the BB shoved in and I snap called. He showed A7 and it wasn't long until he boated up on the 7 4 4 7 x flop. I was basically crippled now as blinds soon moved up to 1.5k/3k with a 500 ante and I had around 24k. I was able to double up when I picked up JJ and reshoved my chip tree who called with 5 5. I call this player the chip tree because he was unfortunate to pretty much be holding under me with big hands all day long. It kind of sucks for him because he played pretty decent all day and had a monster stack. The next hand was crucial when I picked up AA and the chip tree raised under the gun to 8k with 1.5/3k blinds 500 ante. I had about 65k at this point and was in the small blind. He was opening lots of pots and never really got a strong vibe from him until this hand. I can't even explain it and it is just a big cooler in a lot of ways, but I shipped all my chips in for an extremely large raise. He called with AK suited and I had an easy Q 8 2 2 board to lock it up. The very next hand I completed the harvest of the chip tree when I raised with Ac9c on the button and he put the rest in with A8 again being just a little worse. Then I tried to open more pots, but didn't really get many hands for a while and when I did open it cost me 11k to raise and 12k to continuation bet and with 140k in chips or so, that's a decent percentage of your stack. I'm really upset because I felt like I had played very well and patiently all day long. When the blinds and antes moved up to 3k/6k with a 1k ante, everything was just taken out of my hands in a lot of ways. I raised to 16k on the SB with A4 and got pushed all in and I folded. I was down to about 80K at this point and picked up 33 on the button. I really don't know the answer to this hand. I raised to 16k here and the same guy pushed in again from the SB. I easily could have shoved here with the M being 4 and all and only having a little over 13BB, but I had the thought in my head that raising would open up his range to wider than calling. In essence, he might think he could resteal lighter this time and I would obviously be racing but have a chance for a big double up. It's probably a bad play, but I wonder what everyone else thinks. The guy showed JJ and I lost.
Anyway I'm not too upset because I felt like I played very solid and confident for the whole day, but just very unsure on the last hand.
Let's run through the key hands. For the first 3 levels, I again could get nothing going and basically just played solid looking for a good spot. The thing I hate about playing solid early is that there are 6/10 monkeys looking to gamble and blow off all their chips, so if you take the solid approach, you just kind of let the monkeys give other people chips. That doesn't make much sense, but I had that idea today and it's right.
So I played pretty solid until two breaks in when I had around 11K in chips with 4/800 blinds. A pretty good player raised in mid position and I shipped it in with 99. He reluctantly called and showed AQ when I destroyed the 9 4 3 flop. I was able to open up a few more pots and get up to about 27k when I raised UTG+2 with KK to 3200 with 6/1200 blinds. The big blind shipped me in and had me covered, I quickly called and he showed AK. I was up to around 60k. Then nothing very spectacular happened except winning some blinds and hanging right around that mark. With blinds at 1k/2k, I raised to 5k on the button with AK when the BB shoved in and I snap called. He showed A7 and it wasn't long until he boated up on the 7 4 4 7 x flop. I was basically crippled now as blinds soon moved up to 1.5k/3k with a 500 ante and I had around 24k. I was able to double up when I picked up JJ and reshoved my chip tree who called with 5 5. I call this player the chip tree because he was unfortunate to pretty much be holding under me with big hands all day long. It kind of sucks for him because he played pretty decent all day and had a monster stack. The next hand was crucial when I picked up AA and the chip tree raised under the gun to 8k with 1.5/3k blinds 500 ante. I had about 65k at this point and was in the small blind. He was opening lots of pots and never really got a strong vibe from him until this hand. I can't even explain it and it is just a big cooler in a lot of ways, but I shipped all my chips in for an extremely large raise. He called with AK suited and I had an easy Q 8 2 2 board to lock it up. The very next hand I completed the harvest of the chip tree when I raised with Ac9c on the button and he put the rest in with A8 again being just a little worse. Then I tried to open more pots, but didn't really get many hands for a while and when I did open it cost me 11k to raise and 12k to continuation bet and with 140k in chips or so, that's a decent percentage of your stack. I'm really upset because I felt like I had played very well and patiently all day long. When the blinds and antes moved up to 3k/6k with a 1k ante, everything was just taken out of my hands in a lot of ways. I raised to 16k on the SB with A4 and got pushed all in and I folded. I was down to about 80K at this point and picked up 33 on the button. I really don't know the answer to this hand. I raised to 16k here and the same guy pushed in again from the SB. I easily could have shoved here with the M being 4 and all and only having a little over 13BB, but I had the thought in my head that raising would open up his range to wider than calling. In essence, he might think he could resteal lighter this time and I would obviously be racing but have a chance for a big double up. It's probably a bad play, but I wonder what everyone else thinks. The guy showed JJ and I lost.
Anyway I'm not too upset because I felt like I played very solid and confident for the whole day, but just very unsure on the last hand.
Friday, February 8, 2008
A little TV Talk
Spoiler Alert for shows Prison Break and LOST
Let's start off with the question from Mike Z. since he is the only one apparently asking questions consistently. We thank you Mike and congratulations on your excellent law school performance. Keep it up.
Where would you rank this season of Prison Break among the all time biggest disappointments in television history? Or, how would you would you rank it on a disappointment scale?
Let's name off some TV disappointments in history.
1. I heard the show Dallas is probably number one although I never watched an episode. They basically made an entire season and the erased it by saying it was a dream the next year.
2. 24 last season--I thought it was the worst season and I really just hope Jack Bauer jumped off that cliff.
3. The Practice--how it ended? I loved this show and it just kind of drained off and ended. They had Lindsey kill William Hinks (Michael Emerson aka Ben in LOST). William Hinks was the first time I saw Emerson as the creepiest character in history. He portrayed a guy that killed numerous women, but pleaded insanity. He played off the entire thing to a jury that let him off on insanity and in a chilling episode, he reveals that he played all the lawyers and that he is actually nowhere near insane. Then he becomes a threat and one of the lawyers kills him to which she gets off on a technicality or something. Then they kind of had a divorce and the show which was really just excellent just sort of fell of the face of the Earth.
4. The OC--this show lost Mischa Barton to a car crash I think? She was the staple of the show and they just kind of let her go. I didn't watch the third season at all, but I did watch the first 2 and I really don't know why. I seriously wasted that time in my life and apologize to the world for not doing something during the time I watched the OC.
5. Entourage--I still love this show, but didn't we all just want Medellin to be the best movie ever and everyone to be happy. (I looked for 2 minutes to find the correct spelling of Medellin)
I rank Prison Break as an absolute colossal (that word is tough to spell). Speaking of spelling, let's review the 4 years I participated in the Garfield Elementary spelling bee.
Grade 3: I steamrolled the competition knocking off every 8-9 year old in the city. Skull was the winning word and I remember scoffing at the competition as I confidently took it down and shattered the dreams of everyone.
Grade 4: Expected a repeat performance, I went deep this year. Down to the final 5, they threw me a piece of cake word rabbit. I mean seriously, how much easier can it really. I stepped up to the microphone and said as fast as possible "rabbit r-a-b-i....." and I paused as I knew my doom was near. I knew the rule was once you began you couldn't stop. It was a choke. I knew the word. I knew exactly how to spell it. I used to read every damn book out there about animals. I had a fact file on every animal. I finished off the fake spelling throwing a t out there knowing my fate had been sealed.
Grade 5: I believe I got one word right in this spelling bee. In round two, they threw me to the wolves. They asked me to spell oppose. To this day, I swear the teacher pronounced it "A-pose." If I wasn't sweating my brains out to try and redeem myself, I might have asked for a definition or sentence or anything, but I just said "a p p o s e " XXXXXXX
Grade 6: Round 1. Atmosphere. I knew how to spell it again. I knew exactly how to do this. To be honest, I think I threw this one because it wasn't cool to win the spelling bee in sixth. And no one wanted to face that phenom from Hopkins, an unnamed spelling artist that chewed opponents up and could spell better than Webster. I threw an L in there somewhere after the t for no reason. I hate myself to this day for my lack of performance.
Back to Prison Break...
This show went from one of the most promising shows in existence with a great framework for season 3. Everything was in place. We saw the bald guy that never talked to anyone say "we have Scofield where we want him." This alone made the show genius. The first two seasons and everything that happened was some bigger plot that somehow hinted towards Scofield being a superpower specimen of the "Company." His love for Sara T. was something that gave the show a softer side and balanced out the action, killing, and constant terrible moral decisions. Sara was one of the best actresses on the show. Then, we find out her head is chopped off or something by one of the worst characters in the history of television that annoying Gretchen. The new prison is just a strange society and the prison is impossible to get out of. We haven't been given a single piece of information relating the bald guy. We have been given a piece of information related to anything. It has just been a strangely awkward season and the writers obviously have no direction for the show. What I thought was genius about the show, probably never even existed except in my own imagination. This show is toast and one of the most giant disappointments ever. It beats anything on my list above because of the potential. This show won't gain anymore viewers and I hardly expect it to be continued when the Writer's strike resumes.
LOST (spoiler alert) Episode 2 Season 4
Well, I was write about what "Confirmed Dead" meant and I still think I'm right about the boat being DHARMA related. It would make sense since every one of the new characters appears to have some area of scientific or supernatural specialization that relates to what DHARMA was studying. I think this season has a ton of potential and since I hear the writer's strike is over, I'm really hoping we get to see the full season.
The key questions for me are:
1. If Ben knows everything about the boat, who is the mole and how did they communicate with Ben? Wasn't everything being jammed from the island?
2. What is the purpose of the talking to the dead guy? Is he there to communicate with the island's dead and what does Abbadon know about this? Abbadon appears to be what a lot of people predicted to be a big overarching conspiracy?
3. I'm still wondering where Penny fits into all of this. How did Naomi and their team know to use the rescue Desmond idea? How do they relate to Penny's search team? Desmond wasn't on the plane remember, so how did they even know he was on the island? Something tells me that they are somehow related to Penny's dad who we have seen in the past.
I don't really think there are many other important things. This episode was good but wasn't great. It seemed necessary to introduce the plot for this upcoming season and open up myriads of questions.
I had a very disappointing exit from the HORSE tournament tonight. I consider myself a very good player in all the games played here. I know I'm not perfect because there are so many different situations, but I really don't make too many mistakes. One Stud Hi/Lo hand that really cost me the tournament, I'll describe below.
Full Tilt Poker Game #5166952450: FTOPS Event #3 (35825861), Table 46 - 600/1200 Ante 100 - Limit Stud H/L - 0:57:46 ET - 2008/02/08
Seat 1: pokerbrutas (18,843)
Seat 2: CrystalBalla (37,666)
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s (6,507)
Seat 5: k0derkid (20,510)
Seat 6: epokerounder (7,844)
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak (20,794)
Seat 8: kice32 (11,824)
pokerbrutas antes 100
CrystalBalla antes 100
bigdogpckt5s antes 100
k0derkid antes 100
epokerounder antes 100
BlackJackLeak antes 100
kice32 antes 100
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c]
Dealt to bigdogpckt5s [Ts]
Dealt to k0derkid [9s]
Dealt to epokerounder [4c]
Dealt to BlackJackLeak [Js]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd] [Kh]
epokerounder is low with [4c]
epokerounder brings in for 200
BlackJackLeak folds
DutchVinny (Observer): nh
kice32 completes it to 600 (I'm not sure I love my raise here, but with a lot of weak high cards showing and 4 6 7 as the low cards, I feel like I should take a shot at taking down the pot here. I don't expect to be playing against another high hand in the pot.)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
bigdogpckt5s folds
k0derkid folds
epokerounder folds
kice32 calls 600
pokerbrutas calls 600
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d] [Td]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c] [Kc] (Ok so he raised here with a 6c showing. It's important to note that the 4 of clubs is out as that is a blocker card as is the 7 diamonds. Blocker cards are those that prevent the low from making a straight or flush along with their low which gives a high hand the chance to jam a hand when the other player is still drawing to a low.)
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh] [Qs]
kice32 bets 600 ( I bet here because they both pick up a high card here, but it does make them both suited, so I want to get information)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
kice32 raises to 1,800 ( I don't really love my 3 bet here, but at the time the K he got doesn't really scare me)
pokerbrutas folds
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400 (when he reraises, I put him on only two hands, a 4 club with 3 low cards or rolled up 6 6 6)
kice32 calls 600
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc] [4d]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs] [As]
kice32 bets 1,200 ( I pick up two pair here and he picks up a 4 of diamonds. If a club falls for him, I think I just give up the hand completely) At this point though, I still assume that he has a club draw. When he raises, I'm a little concerned now but it could also just be a big draw)
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400
kice32 calls 1,200
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc 4d] [6s] (a six? Hmmm must not be rolled up sixes because that would be kind of weird now wouldn't it. At this point, I'm thoroughly convinced, I have the best hand and he is drawing. With that being the case, I make a bet here as he is still drawing_
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As] [Qc]
kice32 bets 1,200
CrystalBalla calls 1,200 (He just calls. 100% a draw now and he has a lot of cards to help him here probably. A club wins him the high hand if I don't hit any of the remaining 5 cards that make me a full house. A low card would win him the low and it's possible he has like 7 8 6 of clubs with the 4, so a 5 is straight for the scoop.)
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc] [2d]
kice32 checks ( A check here is the 100% correct play. I'm only getting called by something that's beating me or better yet raised.)
CrystalBalla bets 1,200
kice32 calls 1,200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CrystalBalla shows [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] a straight, Eight high, for high and 8,7,6,5,4, for low
kice32 mucks (As expected, I really put him on the exact hand when I playing this. He started with a monster 8 7 6 of clubs. Then he had a flush draw, then he had a low draw. It really is almost a race in stud hi/lo.)
CrystalBalla wins the high pot (9,750) with a straight, Eight high
CrystalBalla wins the low pot (9,750) with 8,7,6,5,4
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19,500 | Rake 0
Seat 1: pokerbrutas folded on 4th St.
Seat 2: CrystalBalla showed [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] and won (19,500) with HI: a straight, Eight high; LO: 8,7,6,5,4
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s folded on 3rd St.
Seat 5: k0derkid folded on 3rd St.
Seat 6: epokerounder folded on 3rd St.
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak folded on 3rd St.
Seat 8: kice32 mucked [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc 2d] - HI: two pair, Aces and Kings
I"m not sure if I played this hand properly. I think I should have controlled the pot better with my weak hand. The only problem is that I really was in bad position against a hand that was drawing to a dominating hand. I should have just called the initial bet and hoped to improve and let the action develop. I made the plays I had to make based on my read on the later streets and was unlucky to have the any 5, 6 or club come for the scoop, but that's poker.
This is a cool hand I think and one that I'm going to learn from. When you have a high hand against a low, this is almost always when you get in trouble in Stud Hi/Lo. Getting deep in a tournament, you really only have one big hand that you have to be right on every time in order to do well. At the same time, this was a race situation, but I could have prevented it by being more patient and finding better spots.
Let's start off with the question from Mike Z. since he is the only one apparently asking questions consistently. We thank you Mike and congratulations on your excellent law school performance. Keep it up.
Where would you rank this season of Prison Break among the all time biggest disappointments in television history? Or, how would you would you rank it on a disappointment scale?
Let's name off some TV disappointments in history.
1. I heard the show Dallas is probably number one although I never watched an episode. They basically made an entire season and the erased it by saying it was a dream the next year.
2. 24 last season--I thought it was the worst season and I really just hope Jack Bauer jumped off that cliff.
3. The Practice--how it ended? I loved this show and it just kind of drained off and ended. They had Lindsey kill William Hinks (Michael Emerson aka Ben in LOST). William Hinks was the first time I saw Emerson as the creepiest character in history. He portrayed a guy that killed numerous women, but pleaded insanity. He played off the entire thing to a jury that let him off on insanity and in a chilling episode, he reveals that he played all the lawyers and that he is actually nowhere near insane. Then he becomes a threat and one of the lawyers kills him to which she gets off on a technicality or something. Then they kind of had a divorce and the show which was really just excellent just sort of fell of the face of the Earth.
4. The OC--this show lost Mischa Barton to a car crash I think? She was the staple of the show and they just kind of let her go. I didn't watch the third season at all, but I did watch the first 2 and I really don't know why. I seriously wasted that time in my life and apologize to the world for not doing something during the time I watched the OC.
5. Entourage--I still love this show, but didn't we all just want Medellin to be the best movie ever and everyone to be happy. (I looked for 2 minutes to find the correct spelling of Medellin)
I rank Prison Break as an absolute colossal (that word is tough to spell). Speaking of spelling, let's review the 4 years I participated in the Garfield Elementary spelling bee.
Grade 3: I steamrolled the competition knocking off every 8-9 year old in the city. Skull was the winning word and I remember scoffing at the competition as I confidently took it down and shattered the dreams of everyone.
Grade 4: Expected a repeat performance, I went deep this year. Down to the final 5, they threw me a piece of cake word rabbit. I mean seriously, how much easier can it really. I stepped up to the microphone and said as fast as possible "rabbit r-a-b-i....." and I paused as I knew my doom was near. I knew the rule was once you began you couldn't stop. It was a choke. I knew the word. I knew exactly how to spell it. I used to read every damn book out there about animals. I had a fact file on every animal. I finished off the fake spelling throwing a t out there knowing my fate had been sealed.
Grade 5: I believe I got one word right in this spelling bee. In round two, they threw me to the wolves. They asked me to spell oppose. To this day, I swear the teacher pronounced it "A-pose." If I wasn't sweating my brains out to try and redeem myself, I might have asked for a definition or sentence or anything, but I just said "a p p o s e " XXXXXXX
Grade 6: Round 1. Atmosphere. I knew how to spell it again. I knew exactly how to do this. To be honest, I think I threw this one because it wasn't cool to win the spelling bee in sixth. And no one wanted to face that phenom from Hopkins, an unnamed spelling artist that chewed opponents up and could spell better than Webster. I threw an L in there somewhere after the t for no reason. I hate myself to this day for my lack of performance.
Back to Prison Break...
This show went from one of the most promising shows in existence with a great framework for season 3. Everything was in place. We saw the bald guy that never talked to anyone say "we have Scofield where we want him." This alone made the show genius. The first two seasons and everything that happened was some bigger plot that somehow hinted towards Scofield being a superpower specimen of the "Company." His love for Sara T. was something that gave the show a softer side and balanced out the action, killing, and constant terrible moral decisions. Sara was one of the best actresses on the show. Then, we find out her head is chopped off or something by one of the worst characters in the history of television that annoying Gretchen. The new prison is just a strange society and the prison is impossible to get out of. We haven't been given a single piece of information relating the bald guy. We have been given a piece of information related to anything. It has just been a strangely awkward season and the writers obviously have no direction for the show. What I thought was genius about the show, probably never even existed except in my own imagination. This show is toast and one of the most giant disappointments ever. It beats anything on my list above because of the potential. This show won't gain anymore viewers and I hardly expect it to be continued when the Writer's strike resumes.
LOST (spoiler alert) Episode 2 Season 4
Well, I was write about what "Confirmed Dead" meant and I still think I'm right about the boat being DHARMA related. It would make sense since every one of the new characters appears to have some area of scientific or supernatural specialization that relates to what DHARMA was studying. I think this season has a ton of potential and since I hear the writer's strike is over, I'm really hoping we get to see the full season.
The key questions for me are:
1. If Ben knows everything about the boat, who is the mole and how did they communicate with Ben? Wasn't everything being jammed from the island?
2. What is the purpose of the talking to the dead guy? Is he there to communicate with the island's dead and what does Abbadon know about this? Abbadon appears to be what a lot of people predicted to be a big overarching conspiracy?
3. I'm still wondering where Penny fits into all of this. How did Naomi and their team know to use the rescue Desmond idea? How do they relate to Penny's search team? Desmond wasn't on the plane remember, so how did they even know he was on the island? Something tells me that they are somehow related to Penny's dad who we have seen in the past.
I don't really think there are many other important things. This episode was good but wasn't great. It seemed necessary to introduce the plot for this upcoming season and open up myriads of questions.
I had a very disappointing exit from the HORSE tournament tonight. I consider myself a very good player in all the games played here. I know I'm not perfect because there are so many different situations, but I really don't make too many mistakes. One Stud Hi/Lo hand that really cost me the tournament, I'll describe below.
Full Tilt Poker Game #5166952450: FTOPS Event #3 (35825861), Table 46 - 600/1200 Ante 100 - Limit Stud H/L - 0:57:46 ET - 2008/02/08
Seat 1: pokerbrutas (18,843)
Seat 2: CrystalBalla (37,666)
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s (6,507)
Seat 5: k0derkid (20,510)
Seat 6: epokerounder (7,844)
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak (20,794)
Seat 8: kice32 (11,824)
pokerbrutas antes 100
CrystalBalla antes 100
bigdogpckt5s antes 100
k0derkid antes 100
epokerounder antes 100
BlackJackLeak antes 100
kice32 antes 100
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c]
Dealt to bigdogpckt5s [Ts]
Dealt to k0derkid [9s]
Dealt to epokerounder [4c]
Dealt to BlackJackLeak [Js]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd] [Kh]
epokerounder is low with [4c]
epokerounder brings in for 200
BlackJackLeak folds
DutchVinny (Observer): nh
kice32 completes it to 600 (I'm not sure I love my raise here, but with a lot of weak high cards showing and 4 6 7 as the low cards, I feel like I should take a shot at taking down the pot here. I don't expect to be playing against another high hand in the pot.)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
bigdogpckt5s folds
k0derkid folds
epokerounder folds
kice32 calls 600
pokerbrutas calls 600
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d] [Td]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c] [Kc] (Ok so he raised here with a 6c showing. It's important to note that the 4 of clubs is out as that is a blocker card as is the 7 diamonds. Blocker cards are those that prevent the low from making a straight or flush along with their low which gives a high hand the chance to jam a hand when the other player is still drawing to a low.)
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh] [Qs]
kice32 bets 600 ( I bet here because they both pick up a high card here, but it does make them both suited, so I want to get information)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
kice32 raises to 1,800 ( I don't really love my 3 bet here, but at the time the K he got doesn't really scare me)
pokerbrutas folds
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400 (when he reraises, I put him on only two hands, a 4 club with 3 low cards or rolled up 6 6 6)
kice32 calls 600
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc] [4d]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs] [As]
kice32 bets 1,200 ( I pick up two pair here and he picks up a 4 of diamonds. If a club falls for him, I think I just give up the hand completely) At this point though, I still assume that he has a club draw. When he raises, I'm a little concerned now but it could also just be a big draw)
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400
kice32 calls 1,200
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc 4d] [6s] (a six? Hmmm must not be rolled up sixes because that would be kind of weird now wouldn't it. At this point, I'm thoroughly convinced, I have the best hand and he is drawing. With that being the case, I make a bet here as he is still drawing_
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As] [Qc]
kice32 bets 1,200
CrystalBalla calls 1,200 (He just calls. 100% a draw now and he has a lot of cards to help him here probably. A club wins him the high hand if I don't hit any of the remaining 5 cards that make me a full house. A low card would win him the low and it's possible he has like 7 8 6 of clubs with the 4, so a 5 is straight for the scoop.)
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc] [2d]
kice32 checks ( A check here is the 100% correct play. I'm only getting called by something that's beating me or better yet raised.)
CrystalBalla bets 1,200
kice32 calls 1,200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CrystalBalla shows [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] a straight, Eight high, for high and 8,7,6,5,4, for low
kice32 mucks (As expected, I really put him on the exact hand when I playing this. He started with a monster 8 7 6 of clubs. Then he had a flush draw, then he had a low draw. It really is almost a race in stud hi/lo.)
CrystalBalla wins the high pot (9,750) with a straight, Eight high
CrystalBalla wins the low pot (9,750) with 8,7,6,5,4
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19,500 | Rake 0
Seat 1: pokerbrutas folded on 4th St.
Seat 2: CrystalBalla showed [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] and won (19,500) with HI: a straight, Eight high; LO: 8,7,6,5,4
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s folded on 3rd St.
Seat 5: k0derkid folded on 3rd St.
Seat 6: epokerounder folded on 3rd St.
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak folded on 3rd St.
Seat 8: kice32 mucked [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc 2d] - HI: two pair, Aces and Kings
I"m not sure if I played this hand properly. I think I should have controlled the pot better with my weak hand. The only problem is that I really was in bad position against a hand that was drawing to a dominating hand. I should have just called the initial bet and hoped to improve and let the action develop. I made the plays I had to make based on my read on the later streets and was unlucky to have the any 5, 6 or club come for the scoop, but that's poker.
This is a cool hand I think and one that I'm going to learn from. When you have a high hand against a low, this is almost always when you get in trouble in Stud Hi/Lo. Getting deep in a tournament, you really only have one big hand that you have to be right on every time in order to do well. At the same time, this was a race situation, but I could have prevented it by being more patient and finding better spots.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Not such a Super Tuesday
Let's sum up the poker day
1. I blew off 2k before the rebuy hour was over at the Venetian and just decided to give up. Open ended straight flush draws no good. Gambling Gods in the worst gambling game in history PL Omaha were not on my side. I do have a good note to end this poker post. I am up around $900 in online PL Omaha cash games. I really felt like if I could get chips past this rebuy hour I could play my normal strategy and do well in this tournament. With a small field of around 70-80, I liked my chances. Then I gambled 3 stacks away and failed. Better luck tomorrow in the $330.
2. I had a great stack in the 100 rebuy on Pokerstars (one of my goals this year is to win this tournament). I blew up this stack in a period of about 3 hands all to the same guy. When I was in the top 8 in chips with about 50 to go, I picked up AQ in late position. A short stack with about 20k in chips raises to 4k. I decide that I'm ahead of his range and I'll go for it with this hand. I reraise to about 11.5k i think. He flat calls leaving himself around 9k. So this is a stop n go play by any normal player in this game. Flop is K x x. He moves all in, so I think I have to call here and he shows K 10 off!!!!!!!!!!!! GBAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Then I raised in late position on this same players BB when I had 55. flop A 8 3. I continuation bet here after disconnect probably gave this idiot a reason to try to outplay and I lost. Then I blew up miraculous with AJ on a K J 5 Q x board when he had 55 gg me I suck blahhhhhhh.
Note the labels that I decided to use for this post. Labels are supposed to attract searches to your blog so people can read about me sucking. I'm sure they all want to read about that.
On that note, I will be happy to play tomorrow and continue my current run. I'm due in this tournament right?
I'm watching Super Tuesday wrap up and there is time to take some questions:
Mike K. writes??
"With Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee losing to John McCain going into Super Tuesday, what will the two trailing candidates have to do to capture the minds of the republican voters? Also, do you think the fact that John McCain was held captive for 5 years while a soldier in Vietnam, has given him a distorted judgment on the issue of war?"
There is no way Mike K. knows John McCain was held captive for 5 years, so I call out this impostor. I don't think there is anything Romney or Huckabee can too and judging by the results today, McCain is a lock. Was Romney flying planes in Independence Day? (stolen from Tyler) So the answer is there is nothing they can do because the picture of Republicans today needs to change and the moderate Republicans know that. They will no longer go along with the far right of their party.
The second part of the question is a good one. I think McCain is a tough man based on hearing his story of being held captive, but wouldn't being held captive make you more careful when making decisions about war. He didn't appear to be careful in regards to Iraq. So do I think he's war hungry? No, I don't really think that either. To be honest, I don't know where he stands on war, Iraq, Iran, and such..hmmmmmmmm. You might have a point Mike K.
Mike Z. writes
What are the chances that the previous question was actually written by Mike Klima? Specifically, is there a better chance that Klima wrote that post, or that the Republican v. Democrat nominations are Dennis Kucinich v. Ron Paul?
There really isn't a chance Mike. If Mike Klima thought up and wrote that question, he has either fooled us for 10 years straight or we are all dead. There is a better chance that the Patriots just won the Super Bowl this year than that question being from Mike K. Kucinich vs Paul? I think Paul would win because Cleveland can't win anything.
1. I blew off 2k before the rebuy hour was over at the Venetian and just decided to give up. Open ended straight flush draws no good. Gambling Gods in the worst gambling game in history PL Omaha were not on my side. I do have a good note to end this poker post. I am up around $900 in online PL Omaha cash games. I really felt like if I could get chips past this rebuy hour I could play my normal strategy and do well in this tournament. With a small field of around 70-80, I liked my chances. Then I gambled 3 stacks away and failed. Better luck tomorrow in the $330.
2. I had a great stack in the 100 rebuy on Pokerstars (one of my goals this year is to win this tournament). I blew up this stack in a period of about 3 hands all to the same guy. When I was in the top 8 in chips with about 50 to go, I picked up AQ in late position. A short stack with about 20k in chips raises to 4k. I decide that I'm ahead of his range and I'll go for it with this hand. I reraise to about 11.5k i think. He flat calls leaving himself around 9k. So this is a stop n go play by any normal player in this game. Flop is K x x. He moves all in, so I think I have to call here and he shows K 10 off!!!!!!!!!!!! GBAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Then I raised in late position on this same players BB when I had 55. flop A 8 3. I continuation bet here after disconnect probably gave this idiot a reason to try to outplay and I lost. Then I blew up miraculous with AJ on a K J 5 Q x board when he had 55 gg me I suck blahhhhhhh.
Note the labels that I decided to use for this post. Labels are supposed to attract searches to your blog so people can read about me sucking. I'm sure they all want to read about that.
On that note, I will be happy to play tomorrow and continue my current run. I'm due in this tournament right?
I'm watching Super Tuesday wrap up and there is time to take some questions:
Mike K. writes??
"With Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee losing to John McCain going into Super Tuesday, what will the two trailing candidates have to do to capture the minds of the republican voters? Also, do you think the fact that John McCain was held captive for 5 years while a soldier in Vietnam, has given him a distorted judgment on the issue of war?"
There is no way Mike K. knows John McCain was held captive for 5 years, so I call out this impostor. I don't think there is anything Romney or Huckabee can too and judging by the results today, McCain is a lock. Was Romney flying planes in Independence Day? (stolen from Tyler) So the answer is there is nothing they can do because the picture of Republicans today needs to change and the moderate Republicans know that. They will no longer go along with the far right of their party.
The second part of the question is a good one. I think McCain is a tough man based on hearing his story of being held captive, but wouldn't being held captive make you more careful when making decisions about war. He didn't appear to be careful in regards to Iraq. So do I think he's war hungry? No, I don't really think that either. To be honest, I don't know where he stands on war, Iraq, Iran, and such..hmmmmmmmm. You might have a point Mike K.
Mike Z. writes
What are the chances that the previous question was actually written by Mike Klima? Specifically, is there a better chance that Klima wrote that post, or that the Republican v. Democrat nominations are Dennis Kucinich v. Ron Paul?
There really isn't a chance Mike. If Mike Klima thought up and wrote that question, he has either fooled us for 10 years straight or we are all dead. There is a better chance that the Patriots just won the Super Bowl this year than that question being from Mike K. Kucinich vs Paul? I think Paul would win because Cleveland can't win anything.
Super Tuesday
I don't know if this title refers to my upcoming PL Omaha w/ Rebuys win in the Venetian Deep Stack Extravaganza or the second biggest political event of the year. Great to see that Ohio gets to vote after the candidates will probably already be decided. Our system is super unfair and undemocratic as I've stated in previous blogs.
Tyler from Philly wrote in "I am about to jump aboard McCain and Giuliani. In your opinion what are the chances that Giuliani becomes VP for McCain and how do you feel about it as a whole?"
Tyler, I love the political question and a perfect time to ask this. If I had to assess a percentage, I would give it about a 3% chance. First, McCain needs to come through on Super Tuesday and win the nomination. Assuming that he continues his momentum and gets the nomination, he faces some tough questions. First off, the conservative base of the party has seemed to turned their back on McCain. All of the psycho-conservatives (Ann Coulter, Russ Limbaugh) hate McCain. I even read that Ann Coulter would rather have Hillary than John McCain. I see Guiliani as almost the same type of candidate as McCain. He's a very moderate Republican and at times liberal in his views. McCain was picked as that candidate in this primary which is why Guiliani could never gain steam. I would imagine that McCain will be politically savvy if he wins this and pick someone that appeals more to the Republican conservative side as his running mate. What's that equate to? Sorry Tyler, I just don't see a good chance of it happening. I really do think though that if it were to happen, it would throw this race up in a storm.
I'm pulling for Obama on the Democratic side and it should be very close. I just think he has a stance and vision that all American can buy into and support going forward.
As I said, I will be playing the PL Omaha Rebuy event tomorrow at Venetian. This is my first PL Omaha tournament live, but I've had success in the big ones that I've played online namely in the FTOPS and WCOOP. I still am haunted by a hand in the WCOOP that occurred when I was chip leader. I raised in late position with a hand like AA109 Flop came down K 10 x. I bet after the flop and really felt like a player was ready to make a move. I didn't fall in love with my hand by any means hear, but I simply made a play based on my gut with about 24 players left in this tournament. He pushed the pot and I finished off his all in. He showed J 9 9 x for 5 outs since I had one of his nines. The river fell a 9 and I was devastated and could never recover. I finished 18th I believe out of maybe around 700 players. The event tomorrow should be fun and an experience if nothing else.
Today's event went terrible. I arrived a little too late 11:45 for the 12 start time. I did not anticipate the turnout. I was alternate 43 after they filled probably around 440 seats. I got in late in Level 2 with 5700 of the original 6k stack and blinds up to 50/100. I won a couple small pots, then folded AQ preflop after I raised to 600 w/ blinds at 100/200. Shortly after, I picked up KQ in the cutoff (button was away from table), so I had the best position and I limped in a multiway limped pot. Flop came down K Q 10. It checked to me and I bet 1000 into the 1300 pot. A shortstack that just arrived at the table as an alternate put all his chips in on a check raise. I thought for maybe 12 seconds and just thought my hand was slightly ahead of the hands he could be doing this with. He showed AJ and I was just about crippled. After a shortstack triple up and a failed all in I was sent home. Not a good start to this series of events, but that's a very tough situation early in a tournament.
Jay wrote in response to my top 5 poker players blog "What about Allen Cunningham?"
Jay, I totally overlooked Allen Cunningham. He is at least worth an honorable mention if not to be considered as one of the best. I would probably bump lilholdem954 and put him ahead of him if I had to put him in the top 5. I just think his experience in big events and consistent success speaks for itself. If the guy could have any luck at all, he may be main event champion as he was clearly the best player of the final 4 two years ago when Jamie Gold made a miracle call with KJ against his 10 10 and won a monster race.
I will remind you guys to keep those questions coming about anything because I love responding. Just put your question in the comments and I'd be happy to give my opinion.
Keith writing from BGSU wrote "When you look at the Cavs, do you think there is one specific move that will make them a true contender? I think that no matter what move Ferry makes, he will not put the Cavaliers in place to win it all this season."
Realistically, I believe it would take a miracle worker in order to make this team a contender. This team would be a contender with Carlos Boozer locked into a long term contract, and a solid point guard locked into our team. Now in retrospect, it's almost stupid throwing out what ifs, but hey why not. What if we didn't move Andre Miller for Darius Miles in order to try to make this team exciting for the fans? What if we had competent management that actually paid one of the top ten second rounders of the decade in Carlos Boozer?
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Who cares he is nothing to me
SF: Lebron James
PF: Carlos Boozer
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Bench with key reserves including Andy V., Sasha, Daniel Gibson.
That's a contender in my opinion. Can the Cavs get back to that? I've heard Andre Miller trade rumors, but I don't think he or Jason Kidd is the long term answer to this team. I believe it's tough to not call the Cavs a contender since they did make the NBA finals last year, but I get the essence of your question. How do you beat the West and be one of the consistently top 5 teams in the NBA year in and year out? I think anyway that Ferry moves Larry Hughes and lifts the elephant out of the room is the best move. Will there be a blockbuster deal? No. We have what we have this year and probably next year for that matter. We have nothing to give to get another star in here but that's what we need. Lebron will make any player look loads better than they really are. I want to see what he can do with real talent.
That's all for now and keep those questions coming.
Tyler from Philly wrote in "I am about to jump aboard McCain and Giuliani. In your opinion what are the chances that Giuliani becomes VP for McCain and how do you feel about it as a whole?"
Tyler, I love the political question and a perfect time to ask this. If I had to assess a percentage, I would give it about a 3% chance. First, McCain needs to come through on Super Tuesday and win the nomination. Assuming that he continues his momentum and gets the nomination, he faces some tough questions. First off, the conservative base of the party has seemed to turned their back on McCain. All of the psycho-conservatives (Ann Coulter, Russ Limbaugh) hate McCain. I even read that Ann Coulter would rather have Hillary than John McCain. I see Guiliani as almost the same type of candidate as McCain. He's a very moderate Republican and at times liberal in his views. McCain was picked as that candidate in this primary which is why Guiliani could never gain steam. I would imagine that McCain will be politically savvy if he wins this and pick someone that appeals more to the Republican conservative side as his running mate. What's that equate to? Sorry Tyler, I just don't see a good chance of it happening. I really do think though that if it were to happen, it would throw this race up in a storm.
I'm pulling for Obama on the Democratic side and it should be very close. I just think he has a stance and vision that all American can buy into and support going forward.
As I said, I will be playing the PL Omaha Rebuy event tomorrow at Venetian. This is my first PL Omaha tournament live, but I've had success in the big ones that I've played online namely in the FTOPS and WCOOP. I still am haunted by a hand in the WCOOP that occurred when I was chip leader. I raised in late position with a hand like AA109 Flop came down K 10 x. I bet after the flop and really felt like a player was ready to make a move. I didn't fall in love with my hand by any means hear, but I simply made a play based on my gut with about 24 players left in this tournament. He pushed the pot and I finished off his all in. He showed J 9 9 x for 5 outs since I had one of his nines. The river fell a 9 and I was devastated and could never recover. I finished 18th I believe out of maybe around 700 players. The event tomorrow should be fun and an experience if nothing else.
Today's event went terrible. I arrived a little too late 11:45 for the 12 start time. I did not anticipate the turnout. I was alternate 43 after they filled probably around 440 seats. I got in late in Level 2 with 5700 of the original 6k stack and blinds up to 50/100. I won a couple small pots, then folded AQ preflop after I raised to 600 w/ blinds at 100/200. Shortly after, I picked up KQ in the cutoff (button was away from table), so I had the best position and I limped in a multiway limped pot. Flop came down K Q 10. It checked to me and I bet 1000 into the 1300 pot. A shortstack that just arrived at the table as an alternate put all his chips in on a check raise. I thought for maybe 12 seconds and just thought my hand was slightly ahead of the hands he could be doing this with. He showed AJ and I was just about crippled. After a shortstack triple up and a failed all in I was sent home. Not a good start to this series of events, but that's a very tough situation early in a tournament.
Jay wrote in response to my top 5 poker players blog "What about Allen Cunningham?"
Jay, I totally overlooked Allen Cunningham. He is at least worth an honorable mention if not to be considered as one of the best. I would probably bump lilholdem954 and put him ahead of him if I had to put him in the top 5. I just think his experience in big events and consistent success speaks for itself. If the guy could have any luck at all, he may be main event champion as he was clearly the best player of the final 4 two years ago when Jamie Gold made a miracle call with KJ against his 10 10 and won a monster race.
I will remind you guys to keep those questions coming about anything because I love responding. Just put your question in the comments and I'd be happy to give my opinion.
Keith writing from BGSU wrote "When you look at the Cavs, do you think there is one specific move that will make them a true contender? I think that no matter what move Ferry makes, he will not put the Cavaliers in place to win it all this season."
Realistically, I believe it would take a miracle worker in order to make this team a contender. This team would be a contender with Carlos Boozer locked into a long term contract, and a solid point guard locked into our team. Now in retrospect, it's almost stupid throwing out what ifs, but hey why not. What if we didn't move Andre Miller for Darius Miles in order to try to make this team exciting for the fans? What if we had competent management that actually paid one of the top ten second rounders of the decade in Carlos Boozer?
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Who cares he is nothing to me
SF: Lebron James
PF: Carlos Boozer
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Bench with key reserves including Andy V., Sasha, Daniel Gibson.
That's a contender in my opinion. Can the Cavs get back to that? I've heard Andre Miller trade rumors, but I don't think he or Jason Kidd is the long term answer to this team. I believe it's tough to not call the Cavs a contender since they did make the NBA finals last year, but I get the essence of your question. How do you beat the West and be one of the consistently top 5 teams in the NBA year in and year out? I think anyway that Ferry moves Larry Hughes and lifts the elephant out of the room is the best move. Will there be a blockbuster deal? No. We have what we have this year and probably next year for that matter. We have nothing to give to get another star in here but that's what we need. Lebron will make any player look loads better than they really are. I want to see what he can do with real talent.
That's all for now and keep those questions coming.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
WOW
The title of this blog is what I said about twenty times out loud after Eli Manning wrestled his way out of a sure sack and 4th and long coming up and fired a miracle to David Tyree who made an equally miraculous catch on the other side. After throwing about 5 potential picks in his "coming out party" drive, Eli threw the pass to Plaxico. I wish I had a camera on myself because I jumped up hugged the dog as I just pulled out a 4/4 prop bet and correct Super Bowl bet on the Giants.
My four prop bets
1. No score in last 2 minutes of first half
2. Plaxico Burress will score TD
3. NYG will score last
4. Tom Brady will have less than 1.5 rushing yards (sacks don't count negative)
That's my little brag.
Seriously though, I started thinking about if that was the best Super Bowl I've ever seen, so I decided to count down my top 5 favorite games since I could remember. The games I remember begin with the Dallas blow out of Buffalo in Super Bowl 27 to the present.
5. Super Bowl XXXII 1998 Denver 31 - Green Bay 24
I remember this because it was Elway's first Super Bowl and I was pulling for the Broncos for that reason. I wanted to be a fair kid and Favre just won one the year before. I still remember Denver driving and scoring in the last minutes of the game. I think it's one of the best matchups of QB's in NFL Super Bowl history.
4. Super Bowl XXXIX 2005 NE 24 - Philadelphia 21
Tom Brady on another game winning drive in a tight battle with T.O. gutting out a sprained ankle injury. If Philly wins, it would probably have been higher because I was pulling for them, and I think I just donked off a bunch of my Paradise Poker bankroll playing 40/80 limit hold em during the game.
3. Super Bowl XXXIV 2000 St. Louis 23 - Tennessee 16
STRETCH ANOTHER YARD PLEASE!!! Who can forget this ending in Super Bowl history? A goal line stop in the waning seconds of the game while hanging out in Z's basement with a middle aged man screaming for Warner to break his legs watching the game with me. This game was great and close and pitted two gritty QB's Warner and McNair against each other. Man did those guys fall out of their prime.
2. Super Bowl XXXVI 2002 NE 20 - St. Louis 17
A booming game winning field to shock the world when everyone dubbed the "greatest show on turf" unbeatable. Brady leads the team into great position by utilizing his under receivers and managing the game in great fashion. On top of that I had a $5 bet with Mike Z. after week 2 where I took the field and he had the Rams to win it all. I savored that Lincoln.
1. Super Bowl XLII NY Giants 17 - NE 14
When the game was at 7-3, I thought to myself that it had been a great game so far. Despite literally no offense, the defensive battle and every play mattering really intrigued me. Then Eli drove to take the lead. Then Brady drove to take the lead. Then in a miraculous drive that was probably the ugliest best drive in Super Bowl history, Manning came through and capped it off with a perfect pass. There were so many big plays in that last drive I was standing up on edge. Not only that, but they had to drive and score a TD in order to have a chance in the game. Many of the other Super Bowls had OT to fall back on in those game winning drives. This was do or die and every play mattered. Not only that, but the Patriots were going for the ultimate brag ever at 19-0. This was an unreal game and I loved every minute of it. On top of that, I don't even like either of these teams in the slightest. I despise NE, and when it comes to the NFC, I usually root for the Cowboys who are rivals with the G men. I had to drive to a casino to put money on this game just so I cared a little. I'm glad I started to care.
0/7 would correctly label my Sunday tournaments. I cut it short because I've had 3 good days prior and didn't want to dig myself into a 2k hole.
I'm looking forward to poker tomorrow at the Venetian. I'll be playing in the Deep Stacks Tournament there and can't wait. I've been itching to play live poker for almost a month as all the events have been around the globe and not in Vegas. This really kicks off a long stretch of live tournaments that I'm excited to play. I'm totally confident in my game right now, but I'm always looking to improve. The first event is a $330 buy in I believe. Most events seem to be $540 or so with a couple bigger events. I'll decide if I want to play the bigger events depending on how I do. I will be missing the H.O.R.S.E. event as I'm going home to see my niece, which is kind of disappointing, but I do expect to play that lower buy in event at the WSOP. I hope there are a few opportunities before that to play H.O.R.S.E live.
I have another article I'm working on for PocketFives and I'll link that as soon as it gets put up there. I write for them usually once a month.
Also, if you enjoy my blog, please tell your friends or others that would care to read and might like this blog. Every blog wants to get a lot of readers and word of mouth is the best way to do that. I'd greatly appreciate it if the loyal readers passed along the word. Thanks a lot for reading and I'll hopefully have a good poker report tomorrow.
My four prop bets
1. No score in last 2 minutes of first half
2. Plaxico Burress will score TD
3. NYG will score last
4. Tom Brady will have less than 1.5 rushing yards (sacks don't count negative)
That's my little brag.
Seriously though, I started thinking about if that was the best Super Bowl I've ever seen, so I decided to count down my top 5 favorite games since I could remember. The games I remember begin with the Dallas blow out of Buffalo in Super Bowl 27 to the present.
5. Super Bowl XXXII 1998 Denver 31 - Green Bay 24
I remember this because it was Elway's first Super Bowl and I was pulling for the Broncos for that reason. I wanted to be a fair kid and Favre just won one the year before. I still remember Denver driving and scoring in the last minutes of the game. I think it's one of the best matchups of QB's in NFL Super Bowl history.
4. Super Bowl XXXIX 2005 NE 24 - Philadelphia 21
Tom Brady on another game winning drive in a tight battle with T.O. gutting out a sprained ankle injury. If Philly wins, it would probably have been higher because I was pulling for them, and I think I just donked off a bunch of my Paradise Poker bankroll playing 40/80 limit hold em during the game.
3. Super Bowl XXXIV 2000 St. Louis 23 - Tennessee 16
STRETCH ANOTHER YARD PLEASE!!! Who can forget this ending in Super Bowl history? A goal line stop in the waning seconds of the game while hanging out in Z's basement with a middle aged man screaming for Warner to break his legs watching the game with me. This game was great and close and pitted two gritty QB's Warner and McNair against each other. Man did those guys fall out of their prime.
2. Super Bowl XXXVI 2002 NE 20 - St. Louis 17
A booming game winning field to shock the world when everyone dubbed the "greatest show on turf" unbeatable. Brady leads the team into great position by utilizing his under receivers and managing the game in great fashion. On top of that I had a $5 bet with Mike Z. after week 2 where I took the field and he had the Rams to win it all. I savored that Lincoln.
1. Super Bowl XLII NY Giants 17 - NE 14
When the game was at 7-3, I thought to myself that it had been a great game so far. Despite literally no offense, the defensive battle and every play mattering really intrigued me. Then Eli drove to take the lead. Then Brady drove to take the lead. Then in a miraculous drive that was probably the ugliest best drive in Super Bowl history, Manning came through and capped it off with a perfect pass. There were so many big plays in that last drive I was standing up on edge. Not only that, but they had to drive and score a TD in order to have a chance in the game. Many of the other Super Bowls had OT to fall back on in those game winning drives. This was do or die and every play mattered. Not only that, but the Patriots were going for the ultimate brag ever at 19-0. This was an unreal game and I loved every minute of it. On top of that, I don't even like either of these teams in the slightest. I despise NE, and when it comes to the NFC, I usually root for the Cowboys who are rivals with the G men. I had to drive to a casino to put money on this game just so I cared a little. I'm glad I started to care.
0/7 would correctly label my Sunday tournaments. I cut it short because I've had 3 good days prior and didn't want to dig myself into a 2k hole.
I'm looking forward to poker tomorrow at the Venetian. I'll be playing in the Deep Stacks Tournament there and can't wait. I've been itching to play live poker for almost a month as all the events have been around the globe and not in Vegas. This really kicks off a long stretch of live tournaments that I'm excited to play. I'm totally confident in my game right now, but I'm always looking to improve. The first event is a $330 buy in I believe. Most events seem to be $540 or so with a couple bigger events. I'll decide if I want to play the bigger events depending on how I do. I will be missing the H.O.R.S.E. event as I'm going home to see my niece, which is kind of disappointing, but I do expect to play that lower buy in event at the WSOP. I hope there are a few opportunities before that to play H.O.R.S.E live.
I have another article I'm working on for PocketFives and I'll link that as soon as it gets put up there. I write for them usually once a month.
Also, if you enjoy my blog, please tell your friends or others that would care to read and might like this blog. Every blog wants to get a lot of readers and word of mouth is the best way to do that. I'd greatly appreciate it if the loyal readers passed along the word. Thanks a lot for reading and I'll hopefully have a good poker report tomorrow.
Friday, February 1, 2008
I'm an Uncle, LOST, Super Bowl
Alyssa Catherine Iacofano
Born: Thursday January 31, 2008 at 3:55 P.M.
18 inches, 6 1/2 pounds!!
Congratulations to Mark and Angel on their first child, a beautiful daughter. I really wish I could have been there, but this was a little bit earlier than the Feb 17th due date and trying to guess is birth is just about impossible. I'll be heading back to Cleveland after my Chicago visit after Valentine's Day to see my new niece and I'm excited. This is my first niece or nephew and I couldn't be happier for Mark and Angel. I was so excited when I heard some of the early news in the day and when Shrub called and told me it was a girl, I almost broke down crying. It was really quite unreal to be honest and I can't wait to see her.
LOST (spoiler alert)
That started off a great day and LOST closed it out. What a great start to the season. The main characters all have to choose sides between the man of faith and the man of science. Furthermore, we find out that there is an Oceanic Six that have apparently done something that involved leaving people behind in some way. Now we have to guess who did what and how it all happened. Jack appears to have been the leader of something terrible in order to get off the island. I'm just going to go through a couple of points.
1. The Oceanic Six-- We are supposed to assume that Kate, Jack and Hurley are three of these people, yet Kate was a wanted fugitive. With all the press that she would be given, there is no way she would be as free as she looked in the season 3 finale. So I'm thinking it's possible that there are 4 other people besides Hurley and Jack. I'm almost positive we will find out at least one of these people in the next couple of weeks because that story will develop and be the whole series. The writer's strike though will really put a damper on this show if it isn't resolved soon. This season can't stop right in the middle after 8 episodes and I really miss the podcasts Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse would normally do after every new episode.
2. What really happened to get off the island? It appears that Jack may be a fake hero now. If you guys remember in the season 3 finale, the new chief of surgery says to Jack "the hero, twice over" meaning that Jack is perceived as a hero to the outside world still. I'm guessing that Season 4 will give us the answer to what really happened and the rest of the show will be resolving that because Jack will have to fix it if his character stays true to form.
3. Jacob--As my last post gave a link (a faulty one and I apologize about that, but I added one that worked under it), Christian Sheperd, Jack's dad shows up at the very beginning of the series. He showed up last night too in Jacob's house when Hurley peered in. I don't really have any explanations for this at all to be completely honest and am looking forward to what happens. Jacob is still a huge mystery to the show but probably has almost everything to do with a lot of the mysteries, appearances and phenomena that the occur in the show.
4. Naomi--Why would she protect the people on the island when one of them stabbed her? Is tell my sister I love her a code word for they know you guys aren't here to rescue Desmond.
5. Next week's episode title --"Confirmed Dead" I can't wait for this episode, and I don't even know who this would refer to, but I have to imagine it has something to do with the shipwreck that was found and has been the subject of the whole find 815 side story going on. If you haven't checked this out, go search it on lostpedia and read through the articles and watch some of the videos. It is basically the side story that leads to the finding of the Oceanic 815 wreckage. My prediction is that there will be some revelation as to this incident.
SUPER BOWL
Sunday will be that time of year when we can all crown a champion in the great sport of football. I don't think this game is complex. Whoever wins between NE offensive line and NYG Defensive line will win the football game hands down. I'm taking the Giants with the 12 points, but I still like the Patriots to win the game. I don't think any team playing as well as the Giants should ever be 12 point underdogs in a fair surface football game. This team has won 10 straight road games including 3 straight road playoff games against TB, GB, and Dallas. The have consistently done things to make them win and when you have a team that does that, you can't give them 12 points. I still think the Giants are the sucker bet of the year, however, so I'm not going to bet too much, but I'll drive to Red Rock today I think and fire up a bet. NE is going for history and I really don't see them not getting it, but Brady has looked shaky the last two weeks and if the D line can get to him and rattle him, they might be able to force a big turnover in this game.
I'll give you all an update after the Sunday tournaments that I will be playing, but I'm probably going to play a lot less volume during the game, so I might play the big tournament on Full Tilt, UB, and Pokerstars along with some of the early in the day tournaments.
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