Good Time with the Family, Bubby's Vase, The Next 3 Months

I've been having a great time with my mom, dad, grandma, grandpa and cousin over the last 4 days, so I haven't played much poker. When I did play live for a short period of time, I had a neat little cooler hand against a guy so much resembling Mr. Z it was scary (for those of you that know him.) I had KK under the gun and raised to 10 at a NL 1/2 game. There were 6 callers. With $60 in the pot, the flop came down AK4 all hearts. Mr. Z checked to me and I bet 40. Everyone folded to Mr. Z who announced "100" in perfect Mr. Z tone and everything. I basically decided that I'm not getting away from any hand here as I'm never drawing dead as he never has AA here. We get it all in. Turn 7 diamonds river A spades. He shows the hearts and I caught luckily on the river to win the almost $500 pot. Of course, I gave it all back on the craps table because that is what my dad and I do when he comes to Vegas. The last time he was here, we won a decent chunk, but this time I lost 3 of 4 times. I hate gambling. Either way, it's great to see family and friends and I will do anything to hang out with people I know here because it's fun to experience it all.


Earlier in the week for those of you that know about Bubby's Vase, I was accused as the suspected breaker of the vase. In the name of how much fun we actually had in Florida (we pretended like it was still college with a few drinks and long nights), I cannot confirm nor deny these accusations. I have always had a 30% chance odds on me being the one that broke the vase based on people's reactions and denials about the vase. Basically, I have no recollection of ever breaking a vase and Bubby's grandson knows this. I will lay a few odds on Bubby's vase now just for those that know about it.

Odds that I solely broke the vase: 2 to 1
Odds that I was partially responsible with 1 other party involved: 1 to 1
Odds that I was partially responsible with 2 other parties involved: 6 to 1
Odds that the accuser was involved: 2 to 1
Odds that the accuser was the only one who knew who really broke the vase: 8 to 5
Odds that we drank a lot of gin when the vase was broken: 1 to 11999
Odds that the vase cost less than $5: 5 to 1
Odds that the vase cost less than $20: 7 to 4
Odds that the vase breaker also put pieces into the vase: 15 to 1
Odds that I am in some way responsible for breaking the vase: 1 to 3
Odds that the vase cost more than $40: 100 to 1
Odds that Bubby knows the vase was broken: 24 to 1
Odds that vase will be broken again: 600 to 1
Odds that the accuser is fourth level thinking all of us and framing me: 1500 to 1



The next 3 months will be a huge determinant in the future course of my plans with poker. There are plenty of great live tournaments including the World Series of Poker. Financially, it's a big commitment in the next 3 months, but I have succeeded in this game by playing it careful and managing my own bankroll correctly for 4 years. I'm to the point where I can be taking some shots in bigger events like I have been, but only if I can maintain a certain rate of success in these events. What a lot of players don't realize is that if you play 20 big buy in events averaging maybe $2000 per buy, that's $40,000 of winnings to break even. If you have a great cash rate of even 25% (5 out of 20), you still need a final table finish in a normal sized event to have a shot at breaking even. A sample size of 20 tournaments is extremely small in determining if you are actually successful at live tournaments. This is part of the reason online tournaments have flourished with great players because it is an easy way to increase sample size and show the long run edge of skill in the game. I have played several live tournaments since being here with only 1 cash. My best live finish is at Borgata $500 event in October where I placed 8th after a brutal beat at the final table. I have played well in several live events, but have also learned from my flaws. TO SAY I'M FOCUSED AND READY FOR MY RUN is an extreme understatement. I've never felt more challenged and ready to take on every tournament with my best. Success in the next 3 months would make my decision about the next year or so very easy.

My real goal is probably to do well enough financially that I can buy a place here and somewhere back closer to home or more people I know. That way, if I continue to progress in the poker world, I'll always have a place for the 4-5 months that are good out here and a place to go that seems more like home when I'm not here.