I had to write about LOST right away tonight, so there are tons of spoilers in this if you haven't seen tonight's episode yet. Don't read it if you don't want anything given away.
So I paused the Tivo on the tombstone of Jin noticing it says 9/22/2004 as his date of death, the same date of the crash. This means that there is still a chance he isn't dead for all of you Jin fans. I believe that he is just part of the lie that is being perpetuated by Jack, Kate, Hurley, Sayid, Sun, and Aaron (although Aaron really just cries and has two hot moms). My prediction is that Jin is not dead, but part of what is left on the island. That being said, revisiting the odds is important as Sun is now a 15 to 1 winner as is Aaron at 4 to 7. (Read the previous blog I wrote today for more LOST info). Kevin Johnson, on top of being an excellent 3 point shooter in his hey day is also a candidate for mayor of Sacramento along with the new alias of Michael, Ben's apparent mole. Ship the 2 to 1 on that one.
Other than that, it is implied by the captain that Ben staged the crash meaning he has resources that we can't even imagine. That being said, I believe that Ben is now behind the Oceanic Six's lie considering he is already conspiring with Sayid as we've seen. I think that Ben is either holding the people on the island ransom, so that the Oceanic Six produces the lie that they were the only six on the island that survived, or he has thought up some other way to manipulate the Oceanic Six into their own lie.
Don't count on Jin being dead just yet ladies and gentlemen.
Showing posts with label lost. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lost. Show all posts
Thursday, March 13, 2008
LOST and Poker
The best show on television will air it's seventh episode tonight and I'm looking forward to it. In honor of the odds my friend Keith and his kidney stones and LOST blog odds (Keith's blog link), I'm going to assess my own odds. Oh neat, I have KK in a sit n go. Maybe I'll inject some hands in while I'm writing this from the two $225 sit n gos. OK maybe that was a terrible sign of bad luck. I just pushed for 10 BB with KJ suited on the cutoff and got called by AJ gg in one sit n go.
Anyway, LOST odds are as follows (spoilers in LOST and you don't want the best show spoiled now do you)
Odds to be part of the Oceanic Six (We already know Kate, Sayid, Jack, Hurley and I think Aaron, so his odds are reflected in that)
Desmond: 80 - 1 Aaron: 4 - 7 Claire: 50 - 1
Locke: 80 - 1 Rose: 40 - 1 Juliet: 192 - 1
Jin: 3 - 1 Sun: 15 - 1 Sawyer: 90- 1
Vincent: 8000000 - 1 Bernard: 40 - 1 Charlie 9000000000000000- 1
Sun and Jin are a packaged deal in most things, but Sun is pregnant on an island where pregnant women die. Charlie is dead, Vincent is a dog, Desmond is a potential dark horse candidate for the spy. Locke is most likely tied to the island forever. Claire is a high odds candidate because Aaron is not with here assuming she is on the island. Rose and Bernard are fake. Sawyer is highly unlikely to be the candidate because he has made it clear he doesn't trust anybody and doesn't want to leave.
Odds to be the mole on the boat.
Michael: 2 to 1
Desmond: 5 to 1
Sayid: 20 to 1
These are the real only options.
Poker is real frustrating and I just busted in 8th and 9th in the two sit n gos. A clear and stellar performance by me. I have really started to hate sit n gos to be completely honest since I've started to play the step sit n gos. When you get under 10 BB's in a sit n go, there is no way to play post-flop, so it's just luck and a shoving contest. I consistently shove in late position only to run into a monster dominating hand and it just happened again. I think turbo sit n gos are a terrible idea for any player that thinks they have a skill advantage in the game, but who really cares because the game is all luck.
Here is my current problem with the game of poker. There are many instances where no matter what you do, you can't win. Last night was the pinnacle of this comment when I was playing 2/4 NL heads up against a guy that had no speed but 100 MPH. I ended up swinging up 4 buy ins to down 2 buy ins in a period of a little over an hour. When you play heads up for a long time, you can really pick off good reads of how people are playing if they don't properly mix it up. If they don't mix it up enough, the same rules apply to a lot of the betting patterns they exhibit. For example, extremely small or extremely large value bets are almost always the same betting pattern tell of a player. The all-in overshove on the river is one of these tells. The very small value bet could also be a tell. I picked up so much information about my opponent that it was almost impossible for me to not have a significant edge, but when you are playing heads up, you will absolutely not win no matter what you do at least 1 out of 4 times you play. I got set up on a nice 1600 pot to end it all with a flush draw against AA when the AA had a higher flush card and the board went flush card flush card to give him the ace high flush and counterfeit my lower flush and I just quit. Even though the opponent now had 2200 in front of him with over 1400 being his own, I felt the amount of emotional play that I would invoke into the game would not help me. Sometimes, we just have to slow down and cut our losses in this game. It's not that I wouldn't have an edge, but I wouldn't play with a straight mind against this guy. I picked up so many good sized pots with well-timed bluffs and calls only to have it all thrown away in a series of about 3 hands where in one of the 3 I decided to gamble hard as about a 42% underdog. In the other 2 hands, I had my opponent significantly outclassed. The one hand was K9 when I made my standard raise to 12 and was called. The flop came K 3 2 and I was check raised (with this opponent, he really never had the winning hand on a check raise because he refused to mix it up). Instead of pushing, I played it off for value when a non scare card hit the turn maybe an 8 or something he fired the pot and I called. River 2 and he again fired pot and I called to see A2. Now maybe I can make an argument for ending the madness earlier in the hand, but when you against a player that holds the gas down no matter what, I think it's wrong to not let them hang their chips out to dry. At the same time, it's extremely frustrating to not have the deck ever cooperate in situations like this. The game is so unbelievably swingy that it's scary sometimes. One day you can go from being on top of the world to the next day feeling you are significantly outclassed. The only thing to do is to always try to get better and make correct decisions and constantly evaluate if they are correct. I think it's easy to ignore the bad plays we do make sometimes in honor of our own pride. I'm going to evaluate my sit n go strategy and really look if I need to push in these 10 BB spots with some of the hands I have been pushing with. Either way, I still feel that I have been running bad for the last 6-8 months and I'm still hanging in there.
Anyway, LOST odds are as follows (spoilers in LOST and you don't want the best show spoiled now do you)
Odds to be part of the Oceanic Six (We already know Kate, Sayid, Jack, Hurley and I think Aaron, so his odds are reflected in that)
Desmond: 80 - 1 Aaron: 4 - 7 Claire: 50 - 1
Locke: 80 - 1 Rose: 40 - 1 Juliet: 192 - 1
Jin: 3 - 1 Sun: 15 - 1 Sawyer: 90- 1
Vincent: 8000000 - 1 Bernard: 40 - 1 Charlie 9000000000000000- 1
Sun and Jin are a packaged deal in most things, but Sun is pregnant on an island where pregnant women die. Charlie is dead, Vincent is a dog, Desmond is a potential dark horse candidate for the spy. Locke is most likely tied to the island forever. Claire is a high odds candidate because Aaron is not with here assuming she is on the island. Rose and Bernard are fake. Sawyer is highly unlikely to be the candidate because he has made it clear he doesn't trust anybody and doesn't want to leave.
Odds to be the mole on the boat.
Michael: 2 to 1
Desmond: 5 to 1
Sayid: 20 to 1
These are the real only options.
Poker is real frustrating and I just busted in 8th and 9th in the two sit n gos. A clear and stellar performance by me. I have really started to hate sit n gos to be completely honest since I've started to play the step sit n gos. When you get under 10 BB's in a sit n go, there is no way to play post-flop, so it's just luck and a shoving contest. I consistently shove in late position only to run into a monster dominating hand and it just happened again. I think turbo sit n gos are a terrible idea for any player that thinks they have a skill advantage in the game, but who really cares because the game is all luck.
Here is my current problem with the game of poker. There are many instances where no matter what you do, you can't win. Last night was the pinnacle of this comment when I was playing 2/4 NL heads up against a guy that had no speed but 100 MPH. I ended up swinging up 4 buy ins to down 2 buy ins in a period of a little over an hour. When you play heads up for a long time, you can really pick off good reads of how people are playing if they don't properly mix it up. If they don't mix it up enough, the same rules apply to a lot of the betting patterns they exhibit. For example, extremely small or extremely large value bets are almost always the same betting pattern tell of a player. The all-in overshove on the river is one of these tells. The very small value bet could also be a tell. I picked up so much information about my opponent that it was almost impossible for me to not have a significant edge, but when you are playing heads up, you will absolutely not win no matter what you do at least 1 out of 4 times you play. I got set up on a nice 1600 pot to end it all with a flush draw against AA when the AA had a higher flush card and the board went flush card flush card to give him the ace high flush and counterfeit my lower flush and I just quit. Even though the opponent now had 2200 in front of him with over 1400 being his own, I felt the amount of emotional play that I would invoke into the game would not help me. Sometimes, we just have to slow down and cut our losses in this game. It's not that I wouldn't have an edge, but I wouldn't play with a straight mind against this guy. I picked up so many good sized pots with well-timed bluffs and calls only to have it all thrown away in a series of about 3 hands where in one of the 3 I decided to gamble hard as about a 42% underdog. In the other 2 hands, I had my opponent significantly outclassed. The one hand was K9 when I made my standard raise to 12 and was called. The flop came K 3 2 and I was check raised (with this opponent, he really never had the winning hand on a check raise because he refused to mix it up). Instead of pushing, I played it off for value when a non scare card hit the turn maybe an 8 or something he fired the pot and I called. River 2 and he again fired pot and I called to see A2. Now maybe I can make an argument for ending the madness earlier in the hand, but when you against a player that holds the gas down no matter what, I think it's wrong to not let them hang their chips out to dry. At the same time, it's extremely frustrating to not have the deck ever cooperate in situations like this. The game is so unbelievably swingy that it's scary sometimes. One day you can go from being on top of the world to the next day feeling you are significantly outclassed. The only thing to do is to always try to get better and make correct decisions and constantly evaluate if they are correct. I think it's easy to ignore the bad plays we do make sometimes in honor of our own pride. I'm going to evaluate my sit n go strategy and really look if I need to push in these 10 BB spots with some of the hands I have been pushing with. Either way, I still feel that I have been running bad for the last 6-8 months and I'm still hanging in there.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Blockbuster
Wow. What a time to be flying in the air back to Las Vegas. When I got off the plane and heard the details of the trade, I have to admit that I was thrilled. Two main reasons:
1. We got rid of Larry Hughes, a player who I believed brought out of worst of the Cavaliers.
2. We got Ben Wallace, a playoff, championship tested defender that can rebound.
These two things are enough for me to approve of the trade. When I learned that we lost Donyell Marshall, a fairly large contract for something that can actually shoot in Wally S., I was even more thrilled. The only player I would have liked to see still in Cleveland is Gooden, but we essentially replaced him with Wallace/Smith, significantly improving our big man rotation. Newble was a great role player and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back here in the future, but will I miss him? No, this guy barely played prior to the injuries we had this season. Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons never played either. Essentially, we just dumped junk for a fresh start. I understand that we did take on a lot of salaries, but we did lose Hughes in that same thing and from what I understand, Wallace's contract matches his. Wally is a big salary jump. What I love is we somehow convinced them to just throw in a second round draft pick. Two notable Cavs second round draft picks are Carlos Boozer and Daniel Gibson.
I believe that anyone that says Hughes had any value to this team is either 1. blind or 2. stupid. This guy threw up wild shots and because he started making a few on them in the last two weeks people suddenly went to his defense. HE MISSED A 3 FOOT JUMPER FOR THE WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS! When the Cavs get healthy with Sasha, Gibson, and Varajao, we will be the deepest team in the East if not the entire NBA. Anyone calling this trade just "a lateral trade" is an ignorant sports columnist that should be fired immediately and never invited back to ESPN. One of my favorite sites dedicated to Larry Hughes says it best
That being said look for the next 10 games to be tough and the Cavs to maybe win 3 of them. Chemistry isn't something easy to come buy and this move is as risky as they get. The X factor that no one realizes though is how much better Lebron makes everyone around him. We had a bunch of bums that looked average or maybe even good because of Lebron. Now that we have some average talent, these players will start looking a whole lot better. On the same note, Ben Wallace probably couldn't be happier going from the confused Bulls to a legitimate championship contender.
Look at it this way. Our team was obviously not good enough to win the championship. We had to do something. This trade does make our team better, but will it be enough? We'll find out in the coming weeks.
I didn't even mention Delonte West, who provides a player at the point guard that we could use.
LOST (spoilers involved)
LOST was a standard episode last night. We needed to know how Kate got off of her charges to let the flash forward plot move forward. On top of that, we see that she has a child, but it's actually Claire's baby further raising questions about what happened. My new long term prediction is that we will see how this all went down with the Oceanic Six this season. Next season will be more of an explanation of the island and the events after the island, while the final season will be the return to the island and the rescue of the people left behind. I don't have much to say, but to sit back and enjoy this show. Predictions are almost never right. I would like to recant my statement to certain friends about how long I could hold a live grenade in my mouth. I believe I could do this for legitimately 4 hours and not 5 days or infinity as I once predicted.
Survivor
This was the best episode of the year. I think the Favorites made a big mistake kicking out Yau-Man and that Ozzy, as always was right. Eliza should have been booted if it wasn't Parvati. You need to strengthen your tribe and win all challenges, so you can go into the merge and pick off people from the other tribe with numbers. I really do like Jon Penner though and hope he weasels his way deep again. He's always entertaining. I don't even know how the Fans are winning. They are so quirky, odd and bad it's funny.
Ty, I tried to do a lot of research about the dunk contest, but it's a tough question and so I just decided to pick the 5 I remembered the most.
5. Dee Brown arm over the face dunk. Extremely creative at the time and probably tough.
4. Spud Webb one bounce dunk. He's 5 foot 7. Give this little man some credit and I just liked his name when I was little.
3. Foul line dunk by all those who tried it. Probably one of the toughest difficulty ever.
2. Vince Carter--anything this guy did that one dunk contest arm in basket, two handed almost free throw jam, behind the backboard, under the leg.
1. Jason Richardson off the backboard under the leg. This is the toughest dunk ever made.
David T. wrote "After reading your recent article on Pocketfives I was left with some questions regarding your hand analysis: Did you chart the hand rankings based on chip stack and place in mtt? While playing short-stacked frequently while deep in mtts, are you more looking to creep up in the $ or move into a position with a stack that would allow you to make more moves? How has your early game changed since your hand analysis and aggressiveness?"
First off, I want to say thanks for a poker related question because I love answering these and keep them coming.
When I charted my hands, I did it just based solely on the hand, but I took notes next to each one so I had a point of reference. I think you can learn more based on chip stack and place, but for this purpose, I just wanted to look at specific hands.
The short stack question is a good one because I often find myself short stacked in tournaments and I don't really mind being there. The key when playing short stack poker is to look for spots where you won't get called. Essentially, when short stacked, it is sometimes better to look for a spot where you won't get called opposed to one where it is absolutely certain. For example, if someone raises in early position and you look at 77, I prefer folding here and looking for a spot where I have fold equity and am the first one to open the pot. So waiting for a 9 10 off suit is something I would almost rather do here because it gives me a chance to pick up chips without getting called. Obviously some hands are so strong that you have to go with them. 99+ or AQ are probably those hands or when you have a pretty solid hand in the blinds and a late position raiser comes in where you are obviously beating his range of hands.
My early game has changed in the following ways. I just try to be more careful with marginal hands and I realize that passing up a marginal situation with some of the hands I charted is not a bad play. Even if I'm maybe 55%, it's not worth it when I am almost guaranteed of finding a better spot later on. I've really reevaluated situations where I'm raised post-flop as well. I think I've been less likely to move my chips in situations where I may be ahead, but I'm only getting called by a hand that's crushing me. This may seem like simple ideas, but places where you have top pair weak kicker and someone raises you early on. I'm more apt to try to read their later street bets than move all my chips in. This may be a loss of aggressiveness in these situations, but I think it has improved my game.
1. We got rid of Larry Hughes, a player who I believed brought out of worst of the Cavaliers.
2. We got Ben Wallace, a playoff, championship tested defender that can rebound.
These two things are enough for me to approve of the trade. When I learned that we lost Donyell Marshall, a fairly large contract for something that can actually shoot in Wally S., I was even more thrilled. The only player I would have liked to see still in Cleveland is Gooden, but we essentially replaced him with Wallace/Smith, significantly improving our big man rotation. Newble was a great role player and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back here in the future, but will I miss him? No, this guy barely played prior to the injuries we had this season. Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons never played either. Essentially, we just dumped junk for a fresh start. I understand that we did take on a lot of salaries, but we did lose Hughes in that same thing and from what I understand, Wallace's contract matches his. Wally is a big salary jump. What I love is we somehow convinced them to just throw in a second round draft pick. Two notable Cavs second round draft picks are Carlos Boozer and Daniel Gibson.
I believe that anyone that says Hughes had any value to this team is either 1. blind or 2. stupid. This guy threw up wild shots and because he started making a few on them in the last two weeks people suddenly went to his defense. HE MISSED A 3 FOOT JUMPER FOR THE WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS! When the Cavs get healthy with Sasha, Gibson, and Varajao, we will be the deepest team in the East if not the entire NBA. Anyone calling this trade just "a lateral trade" is an ignorant sports columnist that should be fired immediately and never invited back to ESPN. One of my favorite sites dedicated to Larry Hughes says it best
That being said look for the next 10 games to be tough and the Cavs to maybe win 3 of them. Chemistry isn't something easy to come buy and this move is as risky as they get. The X factor that no one realizes though is how much better Lebron makes everyone around him. We had a bunch of bums that looked average or maybe even good because of Lebron. Now that we have some average talent, these players will start looking a whole lot better. On the same note, Ben Wallace probably couldn't be happier going from the confused Bulls to a legitimate championship contender.
Look at it this way. Our team was obviously not good enough to win the championship. We had to do something. This trade does make our team better, but will it be enough? We'll find out in the coming weeks.
I didn't even mention Delonte West, who provides a player at the point guard that we could use.
LOST (spoilers involved)
LOST was a standard episode last night. We needed to know how Kate got off of her charges to let the flash forward plot move forward. On top of that, we see that she has a child, but it's actually Claire's baby further raising questions about what happened. My new long term prediction is that we will see how this all went down with the Oceanic Six this season. Next season will be more of an explanation of the island and the events after the island, while the final season will be the return to the island and the rescue of the people left behind. I don't have much to say, but to sit back and enjoy this show. Predictions are almost never right. I would like to recant my statement to certain friends about how long I could hold a live grenade in my mouth. I believe I could do this for legitimately 4 hours and not 5 days or infinity as I once predicted.
Survivor
This was the best episode of the year. I think the Favorites made a big mistake kicking out Yau-Man and that Ozzy, as always was right. Eliza should have been booted if it wasn't Parvati. You need to strengthen your tribe and win all challenges, so you can go into the merge and pick off people from the other tribe with numbers. I really do like Jon Penner though and hope he weasels his way deep again. He's always entertaining. I don't even know how the Fans are winning. They are so quirky, odd and bad it's funny.
Ty, I tried to do a lot of research about the dunk contest, but it's a tough question and so I just decided to pick the 5 I remembered the most.
5. Dee Brown arm over the face dunk. Extremely creative at the time and probably tough.
4. Spud Webb one bounce dunk. He's 5 foot 7. Give this little man some credit and I just liked his name when I was little.
3. Foul line dunk by all those who tried it. Probably one of the toughest difficulty ever.
2. Vince Carter--anything this guy did that one dunk contest arm in basket, two handed almost free throw jam, behind the backboard, under the leg.
1. Jason Richardson off the backboard under the leg. This is the toughest dunk ever made.
David T. wrote "After reading your recent article on Pocketfives I was left with some questions regarding your hand analysis: Did you chart the hand rankings based on chip stack and place in mtt? While playing short-stacked frequently while deep in mtts, are you more looking to creep up in the $ or move into a position with a stack that would allow you to make more moves? How has your early game changed since your hand analysis and aggressiveness?"
First off, I want to say thanks for a poker related question because I love answering these and keep them coming.
When I charted my hands, I did it just based solely on the hand, but I took notes next to each one so I had a point of reference. I think you can learn more based on chip stack and place, but for this purpose, I just wanted to look at specific hands.
The short stack question is a good one because I often find myself short stacked in tournaments and I don't really mind being there. The key when playing short stack poker is to look for spots where you won't get called. Essentially, when short stacked, it is sometimes better to look for a spot where you won't get called opposed to one where it is absolutely certain. For example, if someone raises in early position and you look at 77, I prefer folding here and looking for a spot where I have fold equity and am the first one to open the pot. So waiting for a 9 10 off suit is something I would almost rather do here because it gives me a chance to pick up chips without getting called. Obviously some hands are so strong that you have to go with them. 99+ or AQ are probably those hands or when you have a pretty solid hand in the blinds and a late position raiser comes in where you are obviously beating his range of hands.
My early game has changed in the following ways. I just try to be more careful with marginal hands and I realize that passing up a marginal situation with some of the hands I charted is not a bad play. Even if I'm maybe 55%, it's not worth it when I am almost guaranteed of finding a better spot later on. I've really reevaluated situations where I'm raised post-flop as well. I think I've been less likely to move my chips in situations where I may be ahead, but I'm only getting called by a hand that's crushing me. This may seem like simple ideas, but places where you have top pair weak kicker and someone raises you early on. I'm more apt to try to read their later street bets than move all my chips in. This may be a loss of aggressiveness in these situations, but I think it has improved my game.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Sayid Woods? and 1/2 NL heads up
Man does that Sayid hit a nice drive. I thought I would chime in after one of the strangest LOST episodes ever. Not only does nothing at all get answered in this episode, we open up about a bag of 500 questions. This is just standard classic LOST. Love it or hate it, that's what this show is all about. Now I can't say that I didn't call it with Ben being the guy at the end because I told my buddy Keith that Ben would either be the economist or Sayid's boss. The picture is starting to become a little more clear though. It's apparent that Ben is essentially holding the other Losties hostage in a way to protect himself and have some of the Oceanic Six eliminate his enemies. Look for Matthew Abbadon(big scary black guy that talks to Naomi and Hurley) to be on Ben's kill list.
I think the next episode will be a Desmond episode and we will finally get answers to who is on the boat.
Survivor: Micronesia fan vs favorites was outstanding tonight. The total blindside that occurred on the first tribal council is always a telling sign that shit is about to hit the fan. I think the guy that masterminded that whole plan just took a super huge risk in week 1, but it paid off. If that risk doesn't work, he's basically gone. On a side note, when Ozzy (my favorite survivor in the history of the show) is in the water, it is about the same as Tiger Woods with a Sunday lead at the majors. Game over! He also was caught late night with a little romantic rendezvous with Amanda. He's my hero.
On the poker front, my new article is up and it's very technical and poker related. You can find it on the home page of pocketfives.com
A lot of the articles on this site don't deal with very specific poker related information. That's perfectly fine, but I wanted to add some content for people to think about and throw around. Also, the experiment I really did has really improved my thinking process in the game. So many times in poker, the real difficult decision is the hand that makes or breaks the tournament. The more you are thinking about those situations and the previous failures in decision making, the better you can improve your specific game. I have really been trying to work on my tournament game and this was a great start. On a side note, if you want to read some solid poker articles, I've really enjoyed Bond18's articles on Pocketfives.
When I have been knocked out of tournaments lately, I've been playing a lot of 1/2 NL heads up. Last night I got destroyed by an opponent and it was partially my fault and partially the cards. I had J 8 of diamonds on one hand and raised to $6 from the button, he raised to $20. I called. Flop came J 3 2d. He made a large continuation bet here, but I had reason to believe I was in decent shape here so I called. Turn was a 4d giving me a flush draw. He checked. Now earlier in the game, I had made a similar play here and bet the turn with nothing. I did the same here and was raised all in by 7 7d where I instantly called, river 7c good bye $550 pot. That along with a couple other dumb plays and misfortune cost me. It's always a good sign when the chat box starts filling up with people lining up to play you. Either way, I think there are a couple lessons to learn from heads up poker.
1. It is 90% about how you feel the game is going.
2. Sometimes, no matter what you will never be able to win and the opponent will talk trash to you despite the insurmountable luck curve you are experiencing.
3. Doing the same thing over and over or mixing it up completely are very important.
4. Adapting to your opponent and then readapting and readapting is the key to winning. It's hard to explain, but this is all feel.
5. Don't play someone when you have $500 and they have $15, you have nothing to gain.
I think the next episode will be a Desmond episode and we will finally get answers to who is on the boat.
Survivor: Micronesia fan vs favorites was outstanding tonight. The total blindside that occurred on the first tribal council is always a telling sign that shit is about to hit the fan. I think the guy that masterminded that whole plan just took a super huge risk in week 1, but it paid off. If that risk doesn't work, he's basically gone. On a side note, when Ozzy (my favorite survivor in the history of the show) is in the water, it is about the same as Tiger Woods with a Sunday lead at the majors. Game over! He also was caught late night with a little romantic rendezvous with Amanda. He's my hero.
On the poker front, my new article is up and it's very technical and poker related. You can find it on the home page of pocketfives.com
A lot of the articles on this site don't deal with very specific poker related information. That's perfectly fine, but I wanted to add some content for people to think about and throw around. Also, the experiment I really did has really improved my thinking process in the game. So many times in poker, the real difficult decision is the hand that makes or breaks the tournament. The more you are thinking about those situations and the previous failures in decision making, the better you can improve your specific game. I have really been trying to work on my tournament game and this was a great start. On a side note, if you want to read some solid poker articles, I've really enjoyed Bond18's articles on Pocketfives.
When I have been knocked out of tournaments lately, I've been playing a lot of 1/2 NL heads up. Last night I got destroyed by an opponent and it was partially my fault and partially the cards. I had J 8 of diamonds on one hand and raised to $6 from the button, he raised to $20. I called. Flop came J 3 2d. He made a large continuation bet here, but I had reason to believe I was in decent shape here so I called. Turn was a 4d giving me a flush draw. He checked. Now earlier in the game, I had made a similar play here and bet the turn with nothing. I did the same here and was raised all in by 7 7d where I instantly called, river 7c good bye $550 pot. That along with a couple other dumb plays and misfortune cost me. It's always a good sign when the chat box starts filling up with people lining up to play you. Either way, I think there are a couple lessons to learn from heads up poker.
1. It is 90% about how you feel the game is going.
2. Sometimes, no matter what you will never be able to win and the opponent will talk trash to you despite the insurmountable luck curve you are experiencing.
3. Doing the same thing over and over or mixing it up completely are very important.
4. Adapting to your opponent and then readapting and readapting is the key to winning. It's hard to explain, but this is all feel.
5. Don't play someone when you have $500 and they have $15, you have nothing to gain.
Friday, February 8, 2008
A little TV Talk
Spoiler Alert for shows Prison Break and LOST
Let's start off with the question from Mike Z. since he is the only one apparently asking questions consistently. We thank you Mike and congratulations on your excellent law school performance. Keep it up.
Where would you rank this season of Prison Break among the all time biggest disappointments in television history? Or, how would you would you rank it on a disappointment scale?
Let's name off some TV disappointments in history.
1. I heard the show Dallas is probably number one although I never watched an episode. They basically made an entire season and the erased it by saying it was a dream the next year.
2. 24 last season--I thought it was the worst season and I really just hope Jack Bauer jumped off that cliff.
3. The Practice--how it ended? I loved this show and it just kind of drained off and ended. They had Lindsey kill William Hinks (Michael Emerson aka Ben in LOST). William Hinks was the first time I saw Emerson as the creepiest character in history. He portrayed a guy that killed numerous women, but pleaded insanity. He played off the entire thing to a jury that let him off on insanity and in a chilling episode, he reveals that he played all the lawyers and that he is actually nowhere near insane. Then he becomes a threat and one of the lawyers kills him to which she gets off on a technicality or something. Then they kind of had a divorce and the show which was really just excellent just sort of fell of the face of the Earth.
4. The OC--this show lost Mischa Barton to a car crash I think? She was the staple of the show and they just kind of let her go. I didn't watch the third season at all, but I did watch the first 2 and I really don't know why. I seriously wasted that time in my life and apologize to the world for not doing something during the time I watched the OC.
5. Entourage--I still love this show, but didn't we all just want Medellin to be the best movie ever and everyone to be happy. (I looked for 2 minutes to find the correct spelling of Medellin)
I rank Prison Break as an absolute colossal (that word is tough to spell). Speaking of spelling, let's review the 4 years I participated in the Garfield Elementary spelling bee.
Grade 3: I steamrolled the competition knocking off every 8-9 year old in the city. Skull was the winning word and I remember scoffing at the competition as I confidently took it down and shattered the dreams of everyone.
Grade 4: Expected a repeat performance, I went deep this year. Down to the final 5, they threw me a piece of cake word rabbit. I mean seriously, how much easier can it really. I stepped up to the microphone and said as fast as possible "rabbit r-a-b-i....." and I paused as I knew my doom was near. I knew the rule was once you began you couldn't stop. It was a choke. I knew the word. I knew exactly how to spell it. I used to read every damn book out there about animals. I had a fact file on every animal. I finished off the fake spelling throwing a t out there knowing my fate had been sealed.
Grade 5: I believe I got one word right in this spelling bee. In round two, they threw me to the wolves. They asked me to spell oppose. To this day, I swear the teacher pronounced it "A-pose." If I wasn't sweating my brains out to try and redeem myself, I might have asked for a definition or sentence or anything, but I just said "a p p o s e " XXXXXXX
Grade 6: Round 1. Atmosphere. I knew how to spell it again. I knew exactly how to do this. To be honest, I think I threw this one because it wasn't cool to win the spelling bee in sixth. And no one wanted to face that phenom from Hopkins, an unnamed spelling artist that chewed opponents up and could spell better than Webster. I threw an L in there somewhere after the t for no reason. I hate myself to this day for my lack of performance.
Back to Prison Break...
This show went from one of the most promising shows in existence with a great framework for season 3. Everything was in place. We saw the bald guy that never talked to anyone say "we have Scofield where we want him." This alone made the show genius. The first two seasons and everything that happened was some bigger plot that somehow hinted towards Scofield being a superpower specimen of the "Company." His love for Sara T. was something that gave the show a softer side and balanced out the action, killing, and constant terrible moral decisions. Sara was one of the best actresses on the show. Then, we find out her head is chopped off or something by one of the worst characters in the history of television that annoying Gretchen. The new prison is just a strange society and the prison is impossible to get out of. We haven't been given a single piece of information relating the bald guy. We have been given a piece of information related to anything. It has just been a strangely awkward season and the writers obviously have no direction for the show. What I thought was genius about the show, probably never even existed except in my own imagination. This show is toast and one of the most giant disappointments ever. It beats anything on my list above because of the potential. This show won't gain anymore viewers and I hardly expect it to be continued when the Writer's strike resumes.
LOST (spoiler alert) Episode 2 Season 4
Well, I was write about what "Confirmed Dead" meant and I still think I'm right about the boat being DHARMA related. It would make sense since every one of the new characters appears to have some area of scientific or supernatural specialization that relates to what DHARMA was studying. I think this season has a ton of potential and since I hear the writer's strike is over, I'm really hoping we get to see the full season.
The key questions for me are:
1. If Ben knows everything about the boat, who is the mole and how did they communicate with Ben? Wasn't everything being jammed from the island?
2. What is the purpose of the talking to the dead guy? Is he there to communicate with the island's dead and what does Abbadon know about this? Abbadon appears to be what a lot of people predicted to be a big overarching conspiracy?
3. I'm still wondering where Penny fits into all of this. How did Naomi and their team know to use the rescue Desmond idea? How do they relate to Penny's search team? Desmond wasn't on the plane remember, so how did they even know he was on the island? Something tells me that they are somehow related to Penny's dad who we have seen in the past.
I don't really think there are many other important things. This episode was good but wasn't great. It seemed necessary to introduce the plot for this upcoming season and open up myriads of questions.
I had a very disappointing exit from the HORSE tournament tonight. I consider myself a very good player in all the games played here. I know I'm not perfect because there are so many different situations, but I really don't make too many mistakes. One Stud Hi/Lo hand that really cost me the tournament, I'll describe below.
Full Tilt Poker Game #5166952450: FTOPS Event #3 (35825861), Table 46 - 600/1200 Ante 100 - Limit Stud H/L - 0:57:46 ET - 2008/02/08
Seat 1: pokerbrutas (18,843)
Seat 2: CrystalBalla (37,666)
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s (6,507)
Seat 5: k0derkid (20,510)
Seat 6: epokerounder (7,844)
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak (20,794)
Seat 8: kice32 (11,824)
pokerbrutas antes 100
CrystalBalla antes 100
bigdogpckt5s antes 100
k0derkid antes 100
epokerounder antes 100
BlackJackLeak antes 100
kice32 antes 100
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c]
Dealt to bigdogpckt5s [Ts]
Dealt to k0derkid [9s]
Dealt to epokerounder [4c]
Dealt to BlackJackLeak [Js]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd] [Kh]
epokerounder is low with [4c]
epokerounder brings in for 200
BlackJackLeak folds
DutchVinny (Observer): nh
kice32 completes it to 600 (I'm not sure I love my raise here, but with a lot of weak high cards showing and 4 6 7 as the low cards, I feel like I should take a shot at taking down the pot here. I don't expect to be playing against another high hand in the pot.)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
bigdogpckt5s folds
k0derkid folds
epokerounder folds
kice32 calls 600
pokerbrutas calls 600
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d] [Td]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c] [Kc] (Ok so he raised here with a 6c showing. It's important to note that the 4 of clubs is out as that is a blocker card as is the 7 diamonds. Blocker cards are those that prevent the low from making a straight or flush along with their low which gives a high hand the chance to jam a hand when the other player is still drawing to a low.)
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh] [Qs]
kice32 bets 600 ( I bet here because they both pick up a high card here, but it does make them both suited, so I want to get information)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
kice32 raises to 1,800 ( I don't really love my 3 bet here, but at the time the K he got doesn't really scare me)
pokerbrutas folds
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400 (when he reraises, I put him on only two hands, a 4 club with 3 low cards or rolled up 6 6 6)
kice32 calls 600
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc] [4d]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs] [As]
kice32 bets 1,200 ( I pick up two pair here and he picks up a 4 of diamonds. If a club falls for him, I think I just give up the hand completely) At this point though, I still assume that he has a club draw. When he raises, I'm a little concerned now but it could also just be a big draw)
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400
kice32 calls 1,200
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc 4d] [6s] (a six? Hmmm must not be rolled up sixes because that would be kind of weird now wouldn't it. At this point, I'm thoroughly convinced, I have the best hand and he is drawing. With that being the case, I make a bet here as he is still drawing_
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As] [Qc]
kice32 bets 1,200
CrystalBalla calls 1,200 (He just calls. 100% a draw now and he has a lot of cards to help him here probably. A club wins him the high hand if I don't hit any of the remaining 5 cards that make me a full house. A low card would win him the low and it's possible he has like 7 8 6 of clubs with the 4, so a 5 is straight for the scoop.)
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc] [2d]
kice32 checks ( A check here is the 100% correct play. I'm only getting called by something that's beating me or better yet raised.)
CrystalBalla bets 1,200
kice32 calls 1,200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CrystalBalla shows [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] a straight, Eight high, for high and 8,7,6,5,4, for low
kice32 mucks (As expected, I really put him on the exact hand when I playing this. He started with a monster 8 7 6 of clubs. Then he had a flush draw, then he had a low draw. It really is almost a race in stud hi/lo.)
CrystalBalla wins the high pot (9,750) with a straight, Eight high
CrystalBalla wins the low pot (9,750) with 8,7,6,5,4
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19,500 | Rake 0
Seat 1: pokerbrutas folded on 4th St.
Seat 2: CrystalBalla showed [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] and won (19,500) with HI: a straight, Eight high; LO: 8,7,6,5,4
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s folded on 3rd St.
Seat 5: k0derkid folded on 3rd St.
Seat 6: epokerounder folded on 3rd St.
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak folded on 3rd St.
Seat 8: kice32 mucked [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc 2d] - HI: two pair, Aces and Kings
I"m not sure if I played this hand properly. I think I should have controlled the pot better with my weak hand. The only problem is that I really was in bad position against a hand that was drawing to a dominating hand. I should have just called the initial bet and hoped to improve and let the action develop. I made the plays I had to make based on my read on the later streets and was unlucky to have the any 5, 6 or club come for the scoop, but that's poker.
This is a cool hand I think and one that I'm going to learn from. When you have a high hand against a low, this is almost always when you get in trouble in Stud Hi/Lo. Getting deep in a tournament, you really only have one big hand that you have to be right on every time in order to do well. At the same time, this was a race situation, but I could have prevented it by being more patient and finding better spots.
Let's start off with the question from Mike Z. since he is the only one apparently asking questions consistently. We thank you Mike and congratulations on your excellent law school performance. Keep it up.
Where would you rank this season of Prison Break among the all time biggest disappointments in television history? Or, how would you would you rank it on a disappointment scale?
Let's name off some TV disappointments in history.
1. I heard the show Dallas is probably number one although I never watched an episode. They basically made an entire season and the erased it by saying it was a dream the next year.
2. 24 last season--I thought it was the worst season and I really just hope Jack Bauer jumped off that cliff.
3. The Practice--how it ended? I loved this show and it just kind of drained off and ended. They had Lindsey kill William Hinks (Michael Emerson aka Ben in LOST). William Hinks was the first time I saw Emerson as the creepiest character in history. He portrayed a guy that killed numerous women, but pleaded insanity. He played off the entire thing to a jury that let him off on insanity and in a chilling episode, he reveals that he played all the lawyers and that he is actually nowhere near insane. Then he becomes a threat and one of the lawyers kills him to which she gets off on a technicality or something. Then they kind of had a divorce and the show which was really just excellent just sort of fell of the face of the Earth.
4. The OC--this show lost Mischa Barton to a car crash I think? She was the staple of the show and they just kind of let her go. I didn't watch the third season at all, but I did watch the first 2 and I really don't know why. I seriously wasted that time in my life and apologize to the world for not doing something during the time I watched the OC.
5. Entourage--I still love this show, but didn't we all just want Medellin to be the best movie ever and everyone to be happy. (I looked for 2 minutes to find the correct spelling of Medellin)
I rank Prison Break as an absolute colossal (that word is tough to spell). Speaking of spelling, let's review the 4 years I participated in the Garfield Elementary spelling bee.
Grade 3: I steamrolled the competition knocking off every 8-9 year old in the city. Skull was the winning word and I remember scoffing at the competition as I confidently took it down and shattered the dreams of everyone.
Grade 4: Expected a repeat performance, I went deep this year. Down to the final 5, they threw me a piece of cake word rabbit. I mean seriously, how much easier can it really. I stepped up to the microphone and said as fast as possible "rabbit r-a-b-i....." and I paused as I knew my doom was near. I knew the rule was once you began you couldn't stop. It was a choke. I knew the word. I knew exactly how to spell it. I used to read every damn book out there about animals. I had a fact file on every animal. I finished off the fake spelling throwing a t out there knowing my fate had been sealed.
Grade 5: I believe I got one word right in this spelling bee. In round two, they threw me to the wolves. They asked me to spell oppose. To this day, I swear the teacher pronounced it "A-pose." If I wasn't sweating my brains out to try and redeem myself, I might have asked for a definition or sentence or anything, but I just said "a p p o s e " XXXXXXX
Grade 6: Round 1. Atmosphere. I knew how to spell it again. I knew exactly how to do this. To be honest, I think I threw this one because it wasn't cool to win the spelling bee in sixth. And no one wanted to face that phenom from Hopkins, an unnamed spelling artist that chewed opponents up and could spell better than Webster. I threw an L in there somewhere after the t for no reason. I hate myself to this day for my lack of performance.
Back to Prison Break...
This show went from one of the most promising shows in existence with a great framework for season 3. Everything was in place. We saw the bald guy that never talked to anyone say "we have Scofield where we want him." This alone made the show genius. The first two seasons and everything that happened was some bigger plot that somehow hinted towards Scofield being a superpower specimen of the "Company." His love for Sara T. was something that gave the show a softer side and balanced out the action, killing, and constant terrible moral decisions. Sara was one of the best actresses on the show. Then, we find out her head is chopped off or something by one of the worst characters in the history of television that annoying Gretchen. The new prison is just a strange society and the prison is impossible to get out of. We haven't been given a single piece of information relating the bald guy. We have been given a piece of information related to anything. It has just been a strangely awkward season and the writers obviously have no direction for the show. What I thought was genius about the show, probably never even existed except in my own imagination. This show is toast and one of the most giant disappointments ever. It beats anything on my list above because of the potential. This show won't gain anymore viewers and I hardly expect it to be continued when the Writer's strike resumes.
LOST (spoiler alert) Episode 2 Season 4
Well, I was write about what "Confirmed Dead" meant and I still think I'm right about the boat being DHARMA related. It would make sense since every one of the new characters appears to have some area of scientific or supernatural specialization that relates to what DHARMA was studying. I think this season has a ton of potential and since I hear the writer's strike is over, I'm really hoping we get to see the full season.
The key questions for me are:
1. If Ben knows everything about the boat, who is the mole and how did they communicate with Ben? Wasn't everything being jammed from the island?
2. What is the purpose of the talking to the dead guy? Is he there to communicate with the island's dead and what does Abbadon know about this? Abbadon appears to be what a lot of people predicted to be a big overarching conspiracy?
3. I'm still wondering where Penny fits into all of this. How did Naomi and their team know to use the rescue Desmond idea? How do they relate to Penny's search team? Desmond wasn't on the plane remember, so how did they even know he was on the island? Something tells me that they are somehow related to Penny's dad who we have seen in the past.
I don't really think there are many other important things. This episode was good but wasn't great. It seemed necessary to introduce the plot for this upcoming season and open up myriads of questions.
I had a very disappointing exit from the HORSE tournament tonight. I consider myself a very good player in all the games played here. I know I'm not perfect because there are so many different situations, but I really don't make too many mistakes. One Stud Hi/Lo hand that really cost me the tournament, I'll describe below.
Full Tilt Poker Game #5166952450: FTOPS Event #3 (35825861), Table 46 - 600/1200 Ante 100 - Limit Stud H/L - 0:57:46 ET - 2008/02/08
Seat 1: pokerbrutas (18,843)
Seat 2: CrystalBalla (37,666)
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s (6,507)
Seat 5: k0derkid (20,510)
Seat 6: epokerounder (7,844)
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak (20,794)
Seat 8: kice32 (11,824)
pokerbrutas antes 100
CrystalBalla antes 100
bigdogpckt5s antes 100
k0derkid antes 100
epokerounder antes 100
BlackJackLeak antes 100
kice32 antes 100
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c]
Dealt to bigdogpckt5s [Ts]
Dealt to k0derkid [9s]
Dealt to epokerounder [4c]
Dealt to BlackJackLeak [Js]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd] [Kh]
epokerounder is low with [4c]
epokerounder brings in for 200
BlackJackLeak folds
DutchVinny (Observer): nh
kice32 completes it to 600 (I'm not sure I love my raise here, but with a lot of weak high cards showing and 4 6 7 as the low cards, I feel like I should take a shot at taking down the pot here. I don't expect to be playing against another high hand in the pot.)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
bigdogpckt5s folds
k0derkid folds
epokerounder folds
kice32 calls 600
pokerbrutas calls 600
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to pokerbrutas [7d] [Td]
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c] [Kc] (Ok so he raised here with a 6c showing. It's important to note that the 4 of clubs is out as that is a blocker card as is the 7 diamonds. Blocker cards are those that prevent the low from making a straight or flush along with their low which gives a high hand the chance to jam a hand when the other player is still drawing to a low.)
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh] [Qs]
kice32 bets 600 ( I bet here because they both pick up a high card here, but it does make them both suited, so I want to get information)
pokerbrutas calls 600
CrystalBalla raises to 1,200
kice32 raises to 1,800 ( I don't really love my 3 bet here, but at the time the K he got doesn't really scare me)
pokerbrutas folds
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400 (when he reraises, I put him on only two hands, a 4 club with 3 low cards or rolled up 6 6 6)
kice32 calls 600
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc] [4d]
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs] [As]
kice32 bets 1,200 ( I pick up two pair here and he picks up a 4 of diamonds. If a club falls for him, I think I just give up the hand completely) At this point though, I still assume that he has a club draw. When he raises, I'm a little concerned now but it could also just be a big draw)
CrystalBalla raises to 2,400
kice32 calls 1,200
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to CrystalBalla [6c Kc 4d] [6s] (a six? Hmmm must not be rolled up sixes because that would be kind of weird now wouldn't it. At this point, I'm thoroughly convinced, I have the best hand and he is drawing. With that being the case, I make a bet here as he is still drawing_
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As] [Qc]
kice32 bets 1,200
CrystalBalla calls 1,200 (He just calls. 100% a draw now and he has a lot of cards to help him here probably. A club wins him the high hand if I don't hit any of the remaining 5 cards that make me a full house. A low card would win him the low and it's possible he has like 7 8 6 of clubs with the 4, so a 5 is straight for the scoop.)
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to kice32 [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc] [2d]
kice32 checks ( A check here is the 100% correct play. I'm only getting called by something that's beating me or better yet raised.)
CrystalBalla bets 1,200
kice32 calls 1,200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CrystalBalla shows [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] a straight, Eight high, for high and 8,7,6,5,4, for low
kice32 mucks (As expected, I really put him on the exact hand when I playing this. He started with a monster 8 7 6 of clubs. Then he had a flush draw, then he had a low draw. It really is almost a race in stud hi/lo.)
CrystalBalla wins the high pot (9,750) with a straight, Eight high
CrystalBalla wins the low pot (9,750) with 8,7,6,5,4
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19,500 | Rake 0
Seat 1: pokerbrutas folded on 4th St.
Seat 2: CrystalBalla showed [8c 7c 6c Kc 4d 6s 5h] and won (19,500) with HI: a straight, Eight high; LO: 8,7,6,5,4
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s folded on 3rd St.
Seat 5: k0derkid folded on 3rd St.
Seat 6: epokerounder folded on 3rd St.
Seat 7: BlackJackLeak folded on 3rd St.
Seat 8: kice32 mucked [Ah Kd Kh Qs As Qc 2d] - HI: two pair, Aces and Kings
I"m not sure if I played this hand properly. I think I should have controlled the pot better with my weak hand. The only problem is that I really was in bad position against a hand that was drawing to a dominating hand. I should have just called the initial bet and hoped to improve and let the action develop. I made the plays I had to make based on my read on the later streets and was unlucky to have the any 5, 6 or club come for the scoop, but that's poker.
This is a cool hand I think and one that I'm going to learn from. When you have a high hand against a low, this is almost always when you get in trouble in Stud Hi/Lo. Getting deep in a tournament, you really only have one big hand that you have to be right on every time in order to do well. At the same time, this was a race situation, but I could have prevented it by being more patient and finding better spots.
Friday, February 1, 2008
I'm an Uncle, LOST, Super Bowl
Alyssa Catherine Iacofano
Born: Thursday January 31, 2008 at 3:55 P.M.
18 inches, 6 1/2 pounds!!
Congratulations to Mark and Angel on their first child, a beautiful daughter. I really wish I could have been there, but this was a little bit earlier than the Feb 17th due date and trying to guess is birth is just about impossible. I'll be heading back to Cleveland after my Chicago visit after Valentine's Day to see my new niece and I'm excited. This is my first niece or nephew and I couldn't be happier for Mark and Angel. I was so excited when I heard some of the early news in the day and when Shrub called and told me it was a girl, I almost broke down crying. It was really quite unreal to be honest and I can't wait to see her.
LOST (spoiler alert)
That started off a great day and LOST closed it out. What a great start to the season. The main characters all have to choose sides between the man of faith and the man of science. Furthermore, we find out that there is an Oceanic Six that have apparently done something that involved leaving people behind in some way. Now we have to guess who did what and how it all happened. Jack appears to have been the leader of something terrible in order to get off the island. I'm just going to go through a couple of points.
1. The Oceanic Six-- We are supposed to assume that Kate, Jack and Hurley are three of these people, yet Kate was a wanted fugitive. With all the press that she would be given, there is no way she would be as free as she looked in the season 3 finale. So I'm thinking it's possible that there are 4 other people besides Hurley and Jack. I'm almost positive we will find out at least one of these people in the next couple of weeks because that story will develop and be the whole series. The writer's strike though will really put a damper on this show if it isn't resolved soon. This season can't stop right in the middle after 8 episodes and I really miss the podcasts Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse would normally do after every new episode.
2. What really happened to get off the island? It appears that Jack may be a fake hero now. If you guys remember in the season 3 finale, the new chief of surgery says to Jack "the hero, twice over" meaning that Jack is perceived as a hero to the outside world still. I'm guessing that Season 4 will give us the answer to what really happened and the rest of the show will be resolving that because Jack will have to fix it if his character stays true to form.
3. Jacob--As my last post gave a link (a faulty one and I apologize about that, but I added one that worked under it), Christian Sheperd, Jack's dad shows up at the very beginning of the series. He showed up last night too in Jacob's house when Hurley peered in. I don't really have any explanations for this at all to be completely honest and am looking forward to what happens. Jacob is still a huge mystery to the show but probably has almost everything to do with a lot of the mysteries, appearances and phenomena that the occur in the show.
4. Naomi--Why would she protect the people on the island when one of them stabbed her? Is tell my sister I love her a code word for they know you guys aren't here to rescue Desmond.
5. Next week's episode title --"Confirmed Dead" I can't wait for this episode, and I don't even know who this would refer to, but I have to imagine it has something to do with the shipwreck that was found and has been the subject of the whole find 815 side story going on. If you haven't checked this out, go search it on lostpedia and read through the articles and watch some of the videos. It is basically the side story that leads to the finding of the Oceanic 815 wreckage. My prediction is that there will be some revelation as to this incident.
SUPER BOWL
Sunday will be that time of year when we can all crown a champion in the great sport of football. I don't think this game is complex. Whoever wins between NE offensive line and NYG Defensive line will win the football game hands down. I'm taking the Giants with the 12 points, but I still like the Patriots to win the game. I don't think any team playing as well as the Giants should ever be 12 point underdogs in a fair surface football game. This team has won 10 straight road games including 3 straight road playoff games against TB, GB, and Dallas. The have consistently done things to make them win and when you have a team that does that, you can't give them 12 points. I still think the Giants are the sucker bet of the year, however, so I'm not going to bet too much, but I'll drive to Red Rock today I think and fire up a bet. NE is going for history and I really don't see them not getting it, but Brady has looked shaky the last two weeks and if the D line can get to him and rattle him, they might be able to force a big turnover in this game.
I'll give you all an update after the Sunday tournaments that I will be playing, but I'm probably going to play a lot less volume during the game, so I might play the big tournament on Full Tilt, UB, and Pokerstars along with some of the early in the day tournaments.
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